MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, September 22
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Congratulations to us all, we’ve made it to Friday. The 2023 MLB campaign is officially in the home stretch, as well, as most teams have about 10 games left in the regular season. There are still quite a few playoff spots up for grabs, so we should see something resembling real baseball from teams like the Astros, D-Backs, Mariners, Phillies, and Rangers as they continue to duke it out.
We’ve got 11 games on the board for this Friday night with some solid prize pools out there, too. We do have one obvious top stack standing out above the rest from a sheer projection standpoint, but that’ll also lead to some of the quality alternatives coming in a bit under-owned. Let’s dive right in.
Chalk Stack – Braves at Patrick Corbin
The Braves clinched the NL East about 3 months ago, but they’re still running out their usual lineup on a near-nightly basis in order to stay sharp ahead of the postseason. They were up to their usual tricks just last night, as they blasted their way to 10 more runs on a ho-hum 18 hits against Jake Irvin and friends.
Tonight, those mighty Braves will take on old friend Patrick Corbin. It doesn’t feel like the veteran lefty has been that bad this season, yet he still has an ERA of 5.00 with a 16.2% strikeout rate and a barrel rate pushing 9%. Corbin has also allowed 30 homers through 30 games, and tonight he’ll try to tame the most dominant offense we’ve seen in a very long time. So far this season, Atlanta’s projected lineup boasts a .391 wOBA, .255 ISO, and a collective 13.9% barrel rate against southpaws. Just disgusting stuff.
The Braves’ 5.62 total is among the highest on the slate, yet it still feels suspiciously low. The top 8 hitters in the projected lineup all have ISOs of at least .200 against lefties, with Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna typically emerging as the headliners any time the Braves face an LHP. Just 4 of those 30 homers coughed up by Corbin have been hit by lefties, but I’m more than happy to take my chances with Matt Olson if he’ll be a little lower-owned in the lefty-lefty matchup.
The fact that we live in the world of a salary cap is really the only reason the Braves may not be overwhelming chalk in this spot. As of now, we’re projecting the Braves for about 9% stack ownership on DK and 10% on FanDuel. As a result, they’re projecting for positive leverage on both sites, with a 10% opto% on DK and a 12.9% mark on FanDuel.
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