MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, April 10
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This 8-game slate has a bit of everything, including several intriguing pitching options and plenty of offenses in great spots as well, with Coors Field and and the always attackable Patrick Corbin in play. The Coors teams and the Angels against Corbin are likely to end up with the most ownership by the time we hit lock this evening. Let’s break it down and see how we want to handle the bats tonight.
Chalk Stacks — Cardinals, Rockies and Angels
The Cardinals are an elite offense in Coors Field and therefore are currently projecting for the most ownership. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are rightfully priced up, and some of the young guys have seen their prices creep up as well. Although, if Alec Burleson hits second again he is clearly underpriced on DK. You can make an argument Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker are underpriced as well given their power potential.
German Marquez is coming off a down season in 2022, but he has successfully navigated Coors Field for the better part of his 7+ years in the majors. He is off to a rough start in 2023 as he allowed an obscene 64.7% hard hits in his first two starts, but to his credit they were against the Padres and Dodgers. I understand the appeal of attacking a struggling Marquez with an elite offense in Coors, but I cannot recommend going overweight on the Cardinals with so many other great spots to target.
Next up are the Rockies on the other side of the Coors game. They get a matchup against left-hander Steven Matz who was touched up for 52.9% hard hits in his first start including two that left the yard. He has had a home run problem throughout his career with just one season below 1.46 HR/9 since 2017.
The Rockies are not a particularly great offense as they finished just 13th in wOBA last season despite playing half their games in the best hitter’s park in MLB. However, they were better against lefties as they finished 7th in wOBA versus LHP. They currently sit 19th in wOBA for the 2023 season.
The Rockies project for a little less ownership than the Cardinals, but are simply not as good of an offense. I do prefer their matchup against Matz though.
Our final chalk stack is the Angels who get a matchup all DFS players love attacking. Patrick Corbin has been extremely hittable over the last 3+ seasons and is off to another rocky start this season. He has allowed 51.4% hard hits and managed to strike out just 13.4% of batters faced in his first two starts.
The Angels set up particularly well as they project to send 8 righties and Shohei Ohtani to the plate to face Corbin, who allowed a .206 ISO and 49.3% hard hits to righties last season. Ohtani has been excellent against lefties and Corbin actually struck out fewer lefties than righties last season, so no need to shy away from him if stacking Angels. Behind Corbin sits a Nationals bullpen that has already allowed 6 home runs and a 4.72 SIERA, which is fifth worst in baseball.
I prefer the Angels over both Coors teams even though we are unlikely to get much of an ownership discount.