MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, April 17
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We are looking at an eight-game slate tonight now that Phillies-White Sox has been postponed. Coors Field always brings an interesting dynamic to a slate, especially when it involves a below-average offense coming into town. Let’s dive in and take a look at how we want to handle the bats today.
Chalk Stacks – Rockies, Pirates
The Rockies have a massive implied team total of nearly 6.5 runs thanks to their matchup with left-hander Rich Hill. While Hill has still been effective against lefties in the twilight of his career, he has been lit up by righties. Since the beginning of last season, he has allowed only a .097 ISO and 16.7% hard contact to lefties, while righties have torched him for a .216 ISO and 32.5% hard contact. Right-handed power is the clear target here for our DFS lineups. C.J. Cron and Kris Bryant (who is just $3,100 on FanDuel) are the most attractive options. Jurickson Profar is likely to leadoff an is a nice value option, while Elehuris Montero and Ezequiel Tovar offer some cheap power potential down in the order. The overall pricing of the Rockies, with the exception of Cron and Bryant (on DK only), make it easy to pay up for elite pitching which leads to a clear chalk lineup construction. Throwing a lefty like Charlie Blackmon or Ryan McMahon in your stack is a viable way to differentiate your lineup, especially if the Rockies are able to knock Hill out of the game early.
On the other side of the game, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be visiting Coors Field. Their offense ranks 18th in wOBA so far this season with a below-average 94 wRC+. They will be facing left-hander Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Freeland has only struck out 16.9% of batters faced since the beginning of last season, and he really struggled with hard contact last season – over 45% allowed to both sides of the plate. He has been better against lefties this season, but he projects to see eight righties in the Pirates lineup today. He has been very fortunate with batted ball luck this season and will need that to continue if he expects to hold down the Pirates today. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen are the spend-up options, while there is plenty of value to be found throughout the rest of the lineup. Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to leadoff and would be the top value option. Rodolfo Castro has had a lot of success against lefties in a limited sample, and he fills a middle infield position.
My preference today is to be underweight on both teams in Coors Field. The Rockies are the tougher fade, in my opinion, due to their matchup with Rich Hill. The Pirates are the more likely team to be limited by BABIP luck.