MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, April 3rd
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
On some slates, we’ll look at five or even eight teams. Smaller slates are tricky in that almost everyone is in play sometimes. Other times, only three or four are worth noting.
Chalk Stack — Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner
We have an 11-game slate with most teams rolling out their fourth or fifth starter in the rotation. That leaves plenty of top tier offenses in good spots today, so I don’t think there will be heavy chalk on any one team. Currently, the Dodgers project to garner the most ownership facing Rockies’ young right-hander Ryan Feltner. The Dodgers have been known for destroying RHP over the last several years. They are not quite the powerhouse offense they have been, but they are still expected to be among the league’s top offenses.
Last year, Feltner allowed over 40% hard hits to both sides of the plate and managed to strike out just 19.6% of batters faced. He does get the benefit of pitching on the road today away from Coors Field, but this is still quite the difficult first assignment.
The Dodgers projected lineup contains seven hitters that had hard hit rates above 40% last season, with Freddie Freeman leading the way at nearly 49% hard hits vs. righties. Mookie Betts led the team with a .250 ISO vs. righties and is expected to be in his familiar leadoff role. Will Smith is the top bat on the slate at the typically very weak catcher position and also posted an ISO above 200. Max Muncy is a tier below the top three, but also comes with a slight discount ($3,200 FD, $4,600 DK) and has plenty of power himself.
The most intriguing thing about the Dodgers stack may be the value options that possess upside, and there are several. J.D. Martinez may be at the tail end of his great career and one of the few hitters with less than 40% hard hits vs. righties last year, but you could do worse for $2,900 on FanDuel. David Peralta is cheap on both sites and still hits righties well, but the two most intriguing options might be the youngsters Miguel Vargas and Josh Outman with both of them near minimum salaries.
The only knock I can see on the Dodgers is there is currently projected to be a pretty significant wind (~25 MPH) blowing either in from left field or across the field from left to right. Winds and how they impact individual stadiums is difficult to quantify, especially in outlier cases like this one – there are zero similar historical games in Kevin Roth’s WeatherEdge tool. I imagine it could negatively impact right-handed power, but I recommend tuning into CrunchTime tonight to get Roth’s official take on the impact.
While the Dodgers stack may carry significant total ownership, there are plenty of ways to differentiate it, and I would not eliminate it from consideration in single-entry or 3-entry max contests. My favorite differentiation would be to leave off one of the top three and include Rojas and/or Outman.