MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, August 14
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a very interesting 8-game slate for Monday that includes a bit of everything. We have aces, we have Coors Field, we have elite offenses, and we even have some intriguing value at SP to help make everything work. Let’s dive in and discuss how we are handling the bats on this slate.
Chalky Stack – Diamondbacks at Chris Flexen
The Diamondbacks are the clear top stack of the day in Coors Field against arguably the worst pitcher on the slate.
Rockies right-hander Chris Flexen owns a 7.92 ERA, with a dismal 14.6% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He has allowed a 9.5% barrel rate and 2.75 HR/9. There is not one single standout skill here.
The Dbacks have been a league average offense this year, with a .322 wOBA and 99 wRC+ on the season. They strike out at one of the lowest rates in the league and they rank inside the top ten in ISO versus RHP.
The top four hitters in the projected lineup look like elite options today as they all own an ISO of at least .223 versus righties this season. Corbin Carroll has been their best hitter this season, with a .294 ISO and .395 wOBA versus righties.
Flexen owns fairly wide reverse splits throughout his career. He has allowed a higher ISO to righties, with a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate also. Lourdes Gurriel and Christian Walker are the standouts from the right side of the plate, with Tommy Pham checking in as a strong value option.
Our Top Stacks Tool is projecting the Diamondbacks to be the highest owned stack on the slate by a significant margin, but they are also the most likely team to be optimal by a healthy margin.
On FD, their OWN% is currently projecting to be above 20%, with an OPTO% around 16.5%. They are an even stronger play on DK, with an OWN% projecting slightly above 16% and an OPTO% above 18%.
That is a lot of OWN% to have to absorb in tournaments, and it is likely to be even higher in single-entry and smaller-field tournaments. So while they are the most likely to be the top stack of the slate, it is certainly valid to search for an alternative.
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