MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, August 21
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have an 8-game slate for Monday, where pitching is generally weak, overall. We do have one ace in Luis Castillo taking the mound today, but there are plenty of spots for offense today. Slate dynamics are interesting in that there are viable cheap pitching options that should allow the field to spend up for bats if they so choose.
Top Projected Stacks – Braves vs. David Peterson and Rangers at Slade Cecconi
The top two offenses in MLB this season (by wRC+) have been the Braves (124 wRC+) and Rangers (119 wRC+), so it is no surprise to see them atop the rankings yet again today.
The generally high pricing on these two offenses thanks to their season-long success will prevent them from being massive chalk. In fact, the Cardinals currently check-in with the highest OWN% on FD, and come in higher than the Braves on DK.
The Braves get a matchup against lefty David Peterson of the Mets, who owns a 5.45 ERA on the season. He has actually pitched quite a bit better than that as SIERA (4.17) and xFIP (3.78) both suggest he has deserved better results this season. That said, this is not a great spot to expect those results to turn around for Mr. Peterson.
He gets a huge ballpark downgrade going into Atlanta to take on the best offense in baseball. Peterson has allowed just a 7.2% barrel rate and 1.36 HR/9, but this Braves lineup is loaded with fly ball-heavy power hitters.
Seven of the nine hitters in the projected lineup own an ISO above .215 versus left-handed pitching this season. The Braves lead all of MLB with a .225 ISO as a team.
The limiting factor is their salaries. Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson are both above $4K on FD and $6K on DK. Austin Riley joins them above $6K on DK and sits at $3,900 on FD. Sean Murphy joins Riley at $3,900 on FD and is above $5K on DK.
We do not see any real form of salary relief until we get down to the seven spot in the order, where Orlando Arcia is $4,100 on DK and $2,700 on FD. Kevin Pillar and Vaughn Grissom (assuming they actually crack the lineup) are the only true value options (with Arcia on FD) at the bottom of the order.
The pricing holds down the Braves OPTO% on DK, but they sit atop the rankings on FD. It also holds down their OWN%, as they check-in below 10% on both sites.
Moving onto the Rangers, they get a matchup against right-hander Slade Cecconi of the Diamondbacks. He has made just 3 appearances in MLB, and he has struggled to a 6.38 ERA in Triple-A for most of the season. He has also allowed 2.01 HR/9 in Triple-A, and a 12.9% barrel rate in 10.1 big league innings.
Power prevention does not seem to be a skill he has mastered, and that could present a problem for him against the Rangers, who rank 3rd in MLB with a .189 ISO as a team.
Six of the nine hitters in the Rangers lineup own an ISO above .200 versus RHP this season.
Corey Seager is appropriately priced up with the top Braves bats. He has crushed righties this season with a .332 ISO and .466 wOBA, and is one of the top individual bats on the slate. Marcus Semien owns a coveted power/speed combination at the top of the order and comes with 2B eligibility. Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim have both been excellent against righties this season and come with catcher eligibility.
The Rangers project to have the highest OWN% on DK near 13%, while their OPTO% checks-in 3rd at 9%. On FD, both their OWN% and OPTO% check-in 2nd around 9.5%.
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