MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, August 7
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a loaded 8-game slate on this Monday, with plenty of top tier pitching to pay for, as well as several elite offenses in great spots. Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, and Freddy Peralta are just a few of the pitching options that we may want to allocate some salary towards. Deciding whether to prioritize pitching or premium bats is going to be a key decision point on this slate. Let’s break down some of those bats in terms of stacking options to help you decide.
Chalk Stack – Rangers at Ken Waldichuk and Red Sox vs. Cole Ragans
The Rangers have been one of the top offenses in MLB this season, as they rank 2nd in both wOBA (.347) and wRC+ (122). They get a matchup with Ken Waldichuk and the Oakland A’s.
Wladichuk has been brutal this season, posting a 6.52 ERA and allowing over 52% hard contact. He has surrendered 1.63 HR/9 despite pitching his home games in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball. His 13% walk rate is also a major problem for him as he is often allowing hard contact with traffic on the bases.
This is the ideal pitcher to target in DFS, and the bullpen behind him is not any better. The Oakland ‘pen owns the highest SIERA (4.72), 2nd lowest strikeout rate (20.8%), and the highest walk rate (12.8%) in all of MLB.
Corey Seager (.269 ISO vs. LHP), Adolis Garcia (.240 ISO vs. LHP), and Marcus Semien (.150 ISO vs. LHP) are the priorities to spend up for if you have the salary. Semien has displayed more power vs. righties this season, but he has hit lefties better throughout his career.
Ezequiel Duran is going to be one of the most popular batters on the slate thanks to a presumed bump up the order due to injuries to Jonah Heim and Josh Jung. He actually leads the Rangers with a .294 ISO vs. LHP this season.
Mitch Garver is another value option that should be popular. Jonathan Ornelas has been recalled and is expected to make his MLB debut today. He is not available on FD, but is minimum price on DK. Robbie Grossman is also very cheap and has hit lefties extremely well (.173 ISO) this season.
The ballpark needs to be factored into decision making, as it is one of the few negatives we can point to about this Rangers stack today.
The Rangers are projecting for the highest OWN% on both sites, checking in at nearly 16% on DK and above 14% on FD. The Top Stacks Tool puts their OPTO% closer to 9% on both sites.
I would definitely recommend some exposure in large-field tournaments if making multiple lineups, but they are certainly fadeable at this projected ownership in single-entry contests.
The Red Sox are the other team currently projected for double-digit ownership on both sites.
They get a home matchup with Cole Ragans of the Kansas City Royals. He is coming off maybe the best outing of his career when he posted 8 strikeouts against the Mets.
Ragans has otherwise been mostly mediocre this season, working primarily out of the Rangers bullpen before being traded to KC. He owns a 4.33 ERA, with an average 23.2% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate.
He has done a decent job of limiting hard contact and is allowing just a 5.1% barrel rate this year. He has actually had fairly extreme reverse splits this year, as he is striking out more righties (25%) and allowing less hard contact (31.9%) to righties compared to lefties (19.6% strikeouts and 58.6% hard contact).
Rafael Devers is always the top option on this Red Sox team, but he profiles very well in this spot today.
The other thing that jumps off the page is the pricing for the Red Sox on both sites. Devers is underpriced on FD at just $3,400 and is the most expensive option on the team. Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida join him as the only other bats priced above $3K. On DK, there are five bats that qualify as extreme value at $3K or less.
The Red Sox have been an above average offense with a .330 wOBA and 104 wRC+, and they play in one of the most hitter friendly parks in MLB.
Like the Rangers, the Red Sox are projecting for more OWN% than their OPTO%. On FD, we are seeing a projected OWN% of over 13%, compared to an OPTO% just under 9%. On DK, the OWN% is up over 14%, while their OPTO sits just under 10%.
Pricing makes them extremely useful as a secondary or mini stack, but they would not be my first choice as a full stack.
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