MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, July 17
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a big 10-game slate this Monday where everything seems to be pretty bunched together. One of the top offenses in baseball is grading out as the chalk, but some of the better pivots include names we may not be used to seeing in tournament-winning lineups. Let’s dive in and figure out what we are doing with the bats today.
Chalk Stack – Dodgers vs. Grayson Rodriguez
The Dodgers are the only stack currently projected for double-digit ownership. They check-in right around 12% pOWN on both sites for their matchup with the Orioles and young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is back for his second stint in the big leagues this year. He flashed some strikeout ability in his first stint, with a 26.5% strikeout rate in 10 starts. He also struggled mightily with hard contact (12.7% barrels) and the home run ball (2.58 HR/9), which led to a 7.35 ERA. There is plenty of talent evident, but this is a very difficult landing spot for him.
The Dodgers are again a top five offense in baseball, with a .336 wOBA and 113 wRC+ this season. Their .208 ISO and 10.7% walk rate both rank second-best in MLB, giving them a big advantage in two areas where Rodriguez has struggled this season.
Mookie Betts is the top option from his familiar leadoff spot, as he carries a .258 ISO and .389 wOBA versus RHP. Freddie Freeman and Will Smith have both struck out less than 17% and posted an ISO above .180 against righties. Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez come with a little more risk due to their high strikeouts, but both represent elite power options. David Peralta and James Outman offer a little salary savings to help fit a full stack into lineups.
The Dodgers no doubt have immense upside, but their OPTO% grades out about even with their OWN%. They are certainly not a team you must play in smaller-field tournaments or single-entry formats.
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