MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, July 3
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a small six-game slate for Monday evening, with one value stack projecting as the clear chalk. There is pitching to pay up for, but also some interesting options in the mid-range of the salary scale. Let’s dive in and find out the best way to attack this slate.
Chalk Stack – Twins vs. Austin Cox
The Twins are projecting as the chalk on this short slate against Royals left-hander Austin Cox. He had been solid as a multi-inning reliever this season, before moving into the rotation for his last outing. The Guardians touched him up for four runs in 3.2 innings in that start. Cox walked four and struck out only two.
The control has been a major issue for him, as he has a 13.1% walk rate overall this season. He also posted an 11.4% walk rate in Triple-A before his arrival in the big leagues. Although he has successfully limited home runs so far in the majors, they were a problem for him during his time in the minors and we should see some regression there. He allowed 11 home runs in 42.1 Triple-A innings (2.34 HR/9) this season.
The Twins are affordable everywhere, which is contributing to their hefty pOWN projections. The upside begins with Byron Buxton, who owns a .217 ISO versus left-handed pitching this season and for his career. Carlos Correa is the other big name in the lineup, but he has actually been better against righties this season.
Value options like Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer are projected to hit up in the order and should be popular. But I would exercise some caution here, as Solano comes with 63% pinch-hit risk (per THE BAT) and Farmer has posted just a .122 ISO versus lefties this season. I actually prefer Christian Vasquez and Michael A. Taylor lower in the order, although Taylor comes with significant pinch-hit risk as well (33%).
This is an undeniably good spot for the Twins, but they have been a below average offense versus lefties as they own just a .291 wOBA and 85 wRC+ on the season. The Top Stacks tool gives them roughly a 10% OPTO% on DK and 7% OPTO% on FD. Comparing those numbers to 18% DK OWN% and 16% FD OWN% puts the Twins firmly in the fade category for me.
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