MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, June 12
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a seven-game main slate to kick off the week. There is no shortage of offense despite the shorter slate, with four teams having a team total of at least five runs.
Chalk Stacks – Red Sox vs. Connor Seabold and Rays vs. James Kaprielian
The Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the board, currently sitting at 6.21 runs. That type of implied team total is generally reserved for Coors Field or a Wrigley wind game, but it makes sense for the Red Sox today. They get a matchup against a below-average, fly-ball pitcher in Fenway park with winds blowing out to left field.
Connor Seabold carries a 5.10 ERA (4.99 SIERA, 5.57 xFIP) and has managed to strike out just 16.7% of batters faced this season. He has allowed nearly 34% fly balls and over 44% hard contact, leading to him giving up a .190 ISO and 1.32 HR/9 on the season. Seabold has even been a little fortunate with home run variance, allowing just 9.9% HR/FB. So, his numbers could even be a little worse.
In addition to Seabold’s tendency to allow contact, the Red Sox are one of the lowest strikeout teams in baseball. Boston’s .327 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season ranks 10th-best in MLB. They should be putting a ton of balls in play today.
The top stacks tool gives them roughly a 9.5% OPTO% on both sites for this slate, with an OWN% just a shade over 12% on DK and 13% on FD. On FanDuel, I would pay closest attention to individual pOWN% as Adam Duvall (just $2,800 salary) and Rafael Devers are projecting for close to 20%. That is not to say you can’t play those two, I would just be mindful of getting leverage with my secondary stack/one-offs (or at pitcher) if including both of them in your Boston stack.
The Rays have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, with a matchup against perhaps the worst pitching staff in baseball.
James Kaprielian gets the start for Oakland today, and he owns a gaudy 7.21 ERA through 43.2 innings pitched this season. Estimators mostly say he has deserved his results as both his 6.19 xFIP and 5.60 SIERA are well below league average as well. Kaprielian has had some of the widest splits in all of baseball. He has been absolutely torched by lefties, allowing a .300 ISO, over 55% hard contact, and striking out just 14.4% of them.
The Oakland bullpen behind Kaprielian is a prime target as well. They own the worst SIERA (4.96), second-worst strikeout rate (19.4%), and worst walk rate (13.0%) in the league.
In addition to their elite matchup, the Rays have been the best offense in the league this season, with a .351 wOBA and 130 wRC+ that both rank best in the league. You definitely want some exposure to the lefties in the lineup, and the righties are in play also thanks to the horrible bullpen.
The Rays have roughly a 15% OPTO% on both sites, and are checking in with the highest OWN% of the day (15% on DK, 14% on FD). The OWN% is not enough to scare me off of them, as it mostly spread out among the top teams today, but DraftKings would be the site to monitor them closely and find additional leverage. Luke Raley and Isaac Paredes are going to popular value plays thanks to their salaries in the $3k-range. Francisco Mejia could gain steam as a popular punt at the catcher position as well.
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