MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, June 5
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Today, we have a seven-game main slate that is seriously lacking on the pitching side. Fortunately, that means we have plenty of options for stacks today despite the smaller slate. Let’s break it down.
Chalk Stack – Phillies vs. Joey Wentz
Due to the lack of pitching on this slate, we have a number of teams grading out very well today. Half of the 14 teams are hovering right around a 5-run team total. I mention this to point out that I don’t think we really have to be concerned about ownership on full stacks today. Sure, there are individual bats within stacks that will be more popular, but overall, ownership should be pretty spread out.The top team total on the slate belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, but the Blue Jays, Reds, Rangers, Astros, Pirates, and Padres are all within 0.4 implied runs.
The Phillies get a home matchup with Tigers lefty Joey Wentz. Their ballpark is among the most hitter friendly in all of MLB, and Wentz has a gaudy 7.28 ERA. His underlying 4.78 SIERA and 4.82 xFIP suggest he has been a little unlucky, but still well below league average. He has managed to strike out just 18.4% of batters faced this season, while allowing a 9.4% barrel rate and 45.0% hard hit rate. He has also allowed 1.72 HR/9, with righties doing the majority of the damage (.237 ISO this season).
The Phillies have been slightly below average against lefties this season, but at least part of that is the early season struggles of Trea Turner and absence of Bryce Harper. I expect them to be better than league average against lefties going forward with Turner improving his performance and Harper back in the lineup.
Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto are elite options that hit from the right side. Kyle Schwarber and Brye Harper are powerful lefties that can and should be included as well. Schwarber profiles better against Wentz since he is an extreme fly ball hitter and Wentz’s skill against lefties is dependent upon inducing ground balls and soft contact. Wentz owns just a 13.1% strikeout rate versus lefties since last season. The bottom of the lineup is full of value bats that should help round out any full stacks where a little salary savings is necessary.
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