MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, May 15
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have nine games on this Monday’s main slate, including a Coors Field game. Pitching is generally weak overall, and we have plenty of good offenses to choose from. There are six teams with an implied total above five runs, including both teams in Coors. And the Braves come in just shy of the five-run mark, giving us a sixth elite option. We will break down some of these top options, but this is a slate where you can feel free to spread out with the bats.
Chalk Stack – Reds vs. Connor Seabold
The Reds are in Coors Field against arguably the weakest pitcher on the slate. Connor Seabold has moved into the rotation for his last two outings and has posted a 4.56 ERA in 23.2 innings overall this season. He has managed to strike out just 15.9% of the batters he has faced, and he has allowed 45% hard contact. Seabold has allowed 2.00 HR/9 across 45.0 MLB innings. He generally throws the ball in the strike zone as his 5.6% walk rate indicates. And since he won’t generate many whiffs, he will need a good amount of batted-ball luck to find any success today.
The Reds are not a great offense, having posted a .308 wOBA (which ranks 20th in MLB) despite playing their home games in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. This translates to a well-below average 86 wRC+. Of course, they get the Coors boost today and they are very reasonably priced on both sites. On DK, they have five hitters priced at $3,500 or below, including minimum-priced Matt McLain who is expected to make his MLB debut and comes with SS eligibility. McLain has crushed AAA pitching this season with a .362 ISO and 12 HRs in just 38 games. On FD, McLain is not in the player pool, but all batters outside of Jonathan India are priced at $3,500 or below.
The elite matchup and ballpark, paired with reasonable salaries, have the Reds clearly as the highest-owned offense today. It is undoubtedly a good spot for them, but I still think they are fadeable in any tournament format with plenty of other high-upside offenses available today. While the Reds do own the top OPTO% of the day, it comes in significantly below their 18.9% projected OWN%.
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