MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, May 29
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Memorial Day! A huge thank you and shoutout to those who have served and are still serving.
Each site offers a six-game main slate for some Monday afternoon baseball. There won’t be too many off-the-wall options today, but let’s dive in and see what teams are in good spots.
Chalk Stacks – Cardinals vs. Josh Staumont/KC bullpen, Diamondbacks vs. Karl Kauffmann
Josh Staumont will open for Kansas City on Monday. Staumont owns a very respectable 3.94 career ERA, however, he’s never pitched more than two innings in his MLB career. Mike Mayers is expected to pitch in bulk out of the bullpen. He fared much better than expected in his two MLB appearances in 2023.
Mayers has been a decent minor-league pitcher, but across his 243 MLB innings (in eight seasons), Mayers owns a 5.02 ERA and WHIP north of 1.4, while his career 4.62 FIP suggests he is nothing but an average (at best) major-league pitcher. The Cardinals are one of the most talented lineups in baseball (despite their pathetic start to the season in terms of wins and losses).
Collectively, Kansas City currently owns the third-worst bullpen ERA and has given up 25 home runs this season, good for the bottom third of the league in MLB.
The entire Cards lineup is stackable, but the top three projected hitters in the order are so attractive in this spot. Dating back to the beginning of 2022, Lars Nootbaar, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman all own ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching – and this season, Goldy and Gorman have been even better. Collectively, the entire lineup has very high hard-contact rates against right-handed hurlers, which could spell trouble for both pitchers projected to throw for Kansas City today.
The Diamondbacks are in a great spot against Kauffmann today.
I didn’t understand why Colorado called up the rookie 10 days ago after showing minimal major-league upside in the minors. Kauffmann was a good college pitcher, but in three minor-league seasons, posted an ERA over six and yielded well over a hit per inning.
It’s been the same story for Kauffman, as he’s “kauffed” up 13 hits and nine runs in 8.2 innings this season. Karl only dished up one home run in those two starts, but certainly was no stranger to handing them out in the minors.
Arizona is priced accordingly, but on the six-game slate, I have little doubt they’ll carry a decent chunk of ownership. Kauffmann was getting destroyed from both sides of the plate in the minors before his call up to the bigs, so I don’t really have a stronger lean between left or right-handed bats.
The Diamondbacks have seemed to rekindle Lourdes Gurriel with his power stroke this season. The former Blue Jay owns a .311 ISO with high line-drive and hard-hit rates in 2023. He’s one of my favorite plays and Arizona is one of my favorite full stacks on today’s slate. Pavin Smith is projected to lead off and he’s a great value piece on both sites.
Kauffmann is striking out nobody and walking a ton of hitters, while yielding a hard-hit rate well over 50% during both of his major league starts. Arizona will be popular, but it’s tough to get away from some stack exposure today.
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