MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, September 11
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
As things currently stand, we have an 11-game slate for Monday night. There is potential for inclement weather lurking across the country, with Boston and New York (where the Mets have a fantastic matchup) looking like the most worrisome spots according to Kevin Roth’s initial MLB Weather Report.
Be sure to stay updated on the weather via Roth’s report, and tune into Crunch Time leading up to lock for the most up-to-date information.
For now, let’s talk about who we want to stack up today.
Chalk Stack – Cubs at Kyle Freeland
The Cubs are the clear top stack on the board as they head into Coors Field for a matchup with lefty Kyle Freeland. Freeland owns a 5.24 SIERA and just a 14.2% strikeout rate for the season. He has had an extreme split this year in both the strikeout and power departments. He has limited lefties for the most part, with an 18.8% strikeout rate, 5.5% barrel rate, and .106 ISO allowed this season. However, righties have realized a ton of success as Freeland has managed just a 12.7% strikeout rate, while allowing 9.8% barrels and a .242 ISO.
The Cubs project to roll out 8 righties against Freeland, with Cody Bellinger being the lone lefty in the lineup. Oddly enough, Bellinger has been their best hitter against lefties with a .434 wOBA and .260 ISO. He is priced way up to $6,800 on DK and $4,600 on FD. Bellinger gives us a route to differentiate our Cubs stacks as the field is expected to shy away given the lefty-lefty matchup and enormous price tag.
Christopher Morel is projected to lead off and has been great against lefties (.243 ISO).
Nico Hoerner is also priced-up and doesn’t possess a ton of power, but his speed (38/44 in stolen bases this season) gives him plenty of upside.
Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson should hit in the middle of the order. Suzuki is under-priced on DK ($4,200) and owns a 10.4% barrel rate this season. The results have been much better of late as well. Swanson gives us an upside option (.202 ISO vs. LHP) at a premium position.
Yan Gomes is under-priced for his upside (.212 ISO vs. LHP) at the catcher position. And I would even consider him on FD where we aren’t forced to play a catcher since the Cubs options at 1B also have other positional eligibility.
Patrick Wisdom owns a .250 ISO versus lefties this season, but he comes with significant pinch-hit risk (36% according to THE BAT). I would put that risk even higher today since the Cubs are expected to call up elite prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. I would expect PCA to enter the game as a defensive replacement in CF once Freeland has departed, shifting Bellinger to 1B and removing Wisdom from the game.
The pricing on the Cubs and a large slate should help keep Own% in check, but they still project as the highest-owned stack on the slate at around 10.5% on both sites. The Top Stacks tool gives them about an 8% chance of being optimal on DK and about 10% on FD.
There are enough ways to differentiate the stack that I wouldn’t shy away from playing Cubs in single-entry contests, but I wouldn’t just stack the top four righties.
Mix in a Cody Bellinger or Yan Gomes and you should be fine.
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