MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, September 18

Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!

MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.

In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

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We have an 8-game main slate for Monday evening with a wide range of pitching talent. The challenging part is the top four pitchers all have very difficult matchups, so we are seeing chalk condense around the mid-range with less talented pitchers in better matchups. There should be plenty of opportunity to differentiate at pitcher, which is good news as we have some very clear spots to target offense tonight.

Chalk Stack – Brewers at Adam Wainwright

The Brewers get a matchup with the 42-year-old Adam Wainwright as they visit the Cardinals today.

Wainwright has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in the league this season. He currently owns a 7.95 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, and 5.85 SIERA that all rank dead last among pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched this season. He has managed to strike out just 11.3% of the batters he has faced.

It has been a dramatic fall for the long-time rotation staple of the Cardinals.

Lefties have been particularly difficult for the aging righty to handle. He has allowed an obscene 13.6% barrel rate and .263 ISO to lefties, while striking out just 10.5% of them.

Christian Yelich is the top option from the leadoff spot. He has posted a .183 ISO versus righties and has been successful on 27 of his 30 stolen base attempts this season.

Carlos Santana (.190 ISO vs. righties) and Rowdy Tellez (.182 ISO vs. righties) offer big-time power upside at discounted salaries. On FD you can play them together thanks to the UTIL position, but we need to make a choice on DK as they both come with 1B-only eligibility. I would side with the cheaper Tellez for optimal lineups, but Santana should come with far less ownership if you are looking to differentiate your stack.

Sal Frelick has been getting on base (.343 wOBA vs. righties) and adds a little speed upside as well (a perfect 7-7 in stolen base attempts).

Willy Adames is always playable at shortstop and actually leads the Brewers with a .198 ISO versus righties.

The Brewers project to be pretty close to appropriately owned as the top stack on both sites. On DK, their projected OWN% is just below 17% with an OPTO% above 16%. On FD, their OWN% sits just below 16% with an OPTO% right at 15%.

My preference is to lean into Brewers chalk and differentiate at pitcher. It is particularly easy to get leverage on DK by playing Santana over Tellez, and we have two pitcher spots available for additional leverage.

Pivot Stack – Padres vs. Ty Blach

The Padres are projected to be pretty popular on this slate as well, thanks to their elite matchup with Ty Blach.

They are coming off a weekend sweep of the A’s in which they posted 23 runs over the 3 games.

Blach has been touched up for a 4.64 ERA and has managed to strike out just 13.5% of the batters he has faced this season. His 4.90 xFIP and 5.13 SIERA suggest he has even pitched a little worse than his results.

Fernando Tatis is the top target here with elite numbers against lefties this season (.254 ISO, .401 wOBA).

Manny Machado has been extremely solid as well (.185 ISO, .375 wOBA), and Xander Bogaerts has been much better against lefties lately after a rough start to the season against them.

Juan Soto has had his struggles against lefties this year, but he should be a contrarian option to help differentiate the stack if necessary.

Jurickson Profar was recently brought in to help cover for the loss of Jake Cronenworth, and he has had more success against lefties this year. He has an attractive price tag on both sites and projects to hit leadoff.

Luis Campusano and Matthew Batten have been excellent against lefties in a limited sample this season, and they are viable punt options.

The Padres projected OWN% is the second-highest of the slate on both sites, at over 14% on DK and over 10% on FD. Their OPTO% checks in third on both sites, just over 9% on FD and just below 12% on DK.

Despite projecting to be slightly over-owned, they are still one of the top options on the slate. But it does play into my willingness to eat the Brewers chalk, or possibly look for some leverage with the next stack.

Leverage Stack – Mariners at J.P. Sears

The Mariners ran into the buzzsaw that is the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, dropping all three games and scoring just 6 runs in the series.

They get a great bounceback spot tonight against a pitching staff in Oakland that we have attacked all season long.

JP Sears will make the start for the Athletics. He owns a 4.45 ERA and has allowed 1.77 HR/9 this season. 16 of the 31 home runs he has allowed have come at home despite pitching 17.2 less innings at the Coliseum this season. There is no reason to shy away from the matchup due to the ballpark.

Sears is an extreme fly ball pitcher that owns a below-average strikeout rate. Righties have been particularly tough on him as they have posted a 12.6% barrel rate. The Mariners happen to be loaded with right-handed power.

Julio Rodriguez is the budding superstar of the bunch and owns a very solid .187 ISO versus lefties this season.

Teoscar Hernandez has mashed lefties against this season with a very impressive .252 ISO, as he has done throughout his career.

Dylan Moore has been incredible against lefties with a .302 ISO, albeit in a limited 71 plate-appearance sample.

Cal Raleigh offers unique power at the catcher position with a .185 ISO versus lefties this season.

Eugenio Suarez has had a down year versus lefties, but has had a ton of success against them throughout his career.

The Mariners project to be the fourth-highest owned stack on the slate, but they are showing up with significant leverage as the Top Stacks tool is giving them the second-highest chance of being the optimal stack.

On both sites they are projected for around 10% OWN% with an OPTO% approaching 14%.

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