MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, September 18
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have an 8-game main slate for Monday evening with a wide range of pitching talent. The challenging part is the top four pitchers all have very difficult matchups, so we are seeing chalk condense around the mid-range with less talented pitchers in better matchups. There should be plenty of opportunity to differentiate at pitcher, which is good news as we have some very clear spots to target offense tonight.
Chalk Stack – Brewers at Adam Wainwright
The Brewers get a matchup with the 42-year-old Adam Wainwright as they visit the Cardinals today.
Wainwright has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in the league this season. He currently owns a 7.95 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, and 5.85 SIERA that all rank dead last among pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched this season. He has managed to strike out just 11.3% of the batters he has faced.
It has been a dramatic fall for the long-time rotation staple of the Cardinals.
Lefties have been particularly difficult for the aging righty to handle. He has allowed an obscene 13.6% barrel rate and .263 ISO to lefties, while striking out just 10.5% of them.
Christian Yelich is the top option from the leadoff spot. He has posted a .183 ISO versus righties and has been successful on 27 of his 30 stolen base attempts this season.
Carlos Santana (.190 ISO vs. righties) and Rowdy Tellez (.182 ISO vs. righties) offer big-time power upside at discounted salaries. On FD you can play them together thanks to the UTIL position, but we need to make a choice on DK as they both come with 1B-only eligibility. I would side with the cheaper Tellez for optimal lineups, but Santana should come with far less ownership if you are looking to differentiate your stack.
Sal Frelick has been getting on base (.343 wOBA vs. righties) and adds a little speed upside as well (a perfect 7-7 in stolen base attempts).
Willy Adames is always playable at shortstop and actually leads the Brewers with a .198 ISO versus righties.
The Brewers project to be pretty close to appropriately owned as the top stack on both sites. On DK, their projected OWN% is just below 17% with an OPTO% above 16%. On FD, their OWN% sits just below 16% with an OPTO% right at 15%.
My preference is to lean into Brewers chalk and differentiate at pitcher. It is particularly easy to get leverage on DK by playing Santana over Tellez, and we have two pitcher spots available for additional leverage.
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