MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, April 15
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Another day, another 12-game slate. Today’s pitching doesn’t look much better than last night’s, so there should be no shortage of quality offense out there this afternoon. We also don’t have to deal with Coors Field or Wrigley wind, which should keep ownership pretty spread out. There are a couple of games that could see rain, but it doesn’t sound like we’ll have to worry about anything washing out.
Without further delay, let’s sift through the 24 offenses on the slate and find the top stacks.
Chalk Stack – Cleveland Guardians vs. Chad Kuhl
While I doubt any one stack will lap the field from an ownership standpoint on such a huge slate, we are likely looking at a popular Guardians lineup for the second straight day. They only put 4 runs on the board last night against Trevor Williams and friends, but the matchup today against Chad Kuhl is significantly better.
Kuhl isn’t the worst pitcher taking the mound today, but that’s only because Shintaro Fujinami also happens to be pitching. His wheels came off in the second half of last season after a weirdly lucky start for the Rockies, and he hasn’t been any better through his first two outings as a National. Kuhl’s pitched to an 8.10 ERA thus far with a 15.9% strikeout rate, an 11.4% walk rate, and a 6.34 SIERA. The SIERA shows his ERA may be a little on the unlucky side, but a 6.34 SIERA is still ghastly in its own right.
Kuhl isn’t overly splitsy, but he has been a bit worse against lefties over the course of his career. LHBs own a .361 wOBA against him, and he’s allowed more flyballs (40.8%) than groundballs (36.9%). His career walk rate against lefties is also pushing 12%. He’s generated a few more groundballs (43.1%) against righties, but it’s not like he’s suddenly Framber Valdez in that regard.
The Guardians are a lineup that puts the bat on the baseball. The projected lineup this afternoon has whiffed just 17.5% of the time vs. RHPs since the start of 2022, which is among the lowest marks in the league. They do hit the ball on the ground more than we’d like, but Jose Ramirez (45.4% flyballs), Mike Zunino (45.8%), and Steven Kwan (35.6%) are notable exceptions. Ramirez (.240 ISO) and Josh Naylor (.232) absolutely pound right-handed pitching, while Kwan, Josh Bell, Andres Gimenez, and Will Brennan will all hold the platoon edge over Kuhl.
Cleveland isn’t the most powerful lineup, but they should be able to get the merry-go-round going in this spot. Ownership is really the only issue here, especially on FanDuel where many of these hitters are quite cheap. Ramirez, Naylor, and Brennan are 3 of the 5 highest-owned hitters on the FD slate, while 4 Guardians crack the top-12 in our current DraftKings ownership projections.