MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, April 29
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got plenty of baseball on tap for Saturday, but we’re here to talk about the 5-game main slate. We’ll be dealing with Coors Field here, which always makes things interesting from an ownership standpoint. As was the case last night, it looks like the visitors will be a lot more popular than the home team, but we’ve got 10 different teams we can stack this evening.
Chalk Stack – Diamondbacks vs. Noah Davis
The Diamondbacks put 9 runs on the board last night against Kyle Freeland and the Rockies’ bullpen. Tonight, they’ll take their swings against an even more attackable pitcher in Noah Davis. The right-hander has shown some strikeout ability in the majors (25%) in a limited sample, but his control is dicey. Davis posted double-digit walk rates at all of Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors a season ago. He’s walked 3 in his first 9.2 MLB innings this season, but this will be his first outing at home.
Davis has impressive groundball numbers in his short big-league career, but the minor-league stats make that look like noise. He may have a groundball lean, but his 66.7% groundball rate so far in 2023 is unsustainably high. He’s also a right-hander with a traditional split, so Arizona’s lefties will vault to the top of the wish list tonight.
You won’t get discounts on Josh Rojas, Corbin Carroll, or Ketel Marte, but that’s how it should be. They’re 3 of the top-10 projected hitters on the slate, so them being priced up should help keep their ownership relatively in check. That said, we are getting a discount on Christian Walker ($4,100 DK, $3,500 FD) around the industry. He’s posted a .220 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last season, so he’s fully capable of doing damage against righties. Of the lefties, Carroll (.279 ISO, .391 wOBA) is the standout. He’s also a good bet to try and steal if (when?) he gets on base.
The only hindrance to the Arizona stack is, of course, popularity. Very few visiting teams go overlooked at Coors Field. On DraftKings, the 5 most-popular bats on the slate are D-Backs. Rojas, Marte, and Carroll lead the way on FanDuel where they’re all affordable, while Lourdes Gurriel isn’t far behind. This is easily the most likely stack to succeed tonight, but they’re certainly not flying under the radar.
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