MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, August 24th

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MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

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We’re looking at a typical split-slate Saturday, and we’re here to talk about the twin 7-game main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. The weather in Kansas City looks ripe for hitting, while we’ve got only a minor concern with a GREEN/YELLOW weather tag in the STL-MIN clash. This is also a pretty strong looking pitching slate, with just one team – the Tigers! – with an implied run total of at least 5.

How should we stack ‘em up ahead of this fine Saturday night?

All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.

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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, August 24th

CHALK STACK

Tigers at Ky Bush

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The Tigers were the only offense resembling chalk on last night’s 14-game slate, and it’s looking as though they’ll be a popular target again on a slate half as big tonight. Detroit finds itself in another advantageous matchup, getting a park upgrade going into Guaranteed Rate Field to take on rookie southpaw Ky Bush and the notoriously atrocious White Sox bullpen.

Bush only has 3 MLB starts under his belt, and his 3.68 ERA might tell you he’s fared pretty well. That house of cards falls apart immediately once you scroll down his Fangraphs page, however. Bush’s SIERA of 7.30 is among the worst you’ll ever see. Tiny sample, of course, but his walk rate (21.4%) is significantly higher than his woeful 14.3% K rate to this point. Bush only had an 18.8% strikeout rate with an 11.8% walk rate at Triple-A this season, so I’m not holding my breath holding out hope for a turnaround in either category now that he’s in the big leagues.

Bush hasn’t allowed a barrel yet – to his credit – but it’s hard to barrel up a ball if the guy can’t even throw it over the plate. Behind him, the ChiSox have the bullpen with baseball’s 2nd worst ERA.

The lefty actually projects for a reverse platoon split, and we’ve seen a glimpse of that so far. He’s only mustered a 7.1% strikeout rate against his fellow lefties, but it’s not like he’s blowing righties away (16.1%). This just means we can feel fine enough about paying up for Riley Greene if he cracks the lineup in Tigers stacks even in a lefty-lefty matchup.

What makes the Tigers shaky chalk isn’t the matchup against Chicago’s woeful pitching staff. It’s that they are, in fact, the Tigers. Detroit’s projected lineup tonight is sporting a .248 wOBA with an .089 ISO vs. left-handed pitching on the year. They haven’t taken walks (4.9%), while they’ve whiffed nearly 24% of the time. We can take these numbers with a grain of salt, though, as Andy Ibanez and Matt Vierling are the only Tigers with more than 100 plate appearances against LHP on the season.

Vierling (10.1%) is the only Tiger with a double-digit barrel rate vs. lefties, while Ryan Kreidler (9.1%) and Ibanez (7.6%) have been passable. I don’t really think Spencer Torkelson is as dreadful as he’s looked for most of the season, and he has fared well enough against left-handers in a limited sample of major-league work this year (.374 wOBA, .333 ISO). I have no qualms with Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, or Jace Jung from the left side given Bush’s aforementioned reverse split.

If this team is going to be mega-chalk, though, it’s easy to pivot completely and/or come in well under the field in tournaments on their projected ownership. On the bright side, our projections do adore the Tigers tonight. They’re pulling the most projected ownership of any stack on DraftKings (13%), but their optimal rate (21.8%) is also the highest on the board. Their pOWN% is quite a bit lower on FanDuel (6%), while their Opto% is still up in the 16% range.

PIVOT STACK

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles