MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, August 3rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a huge MLB slate on Saturday, with plenty of stacks squaring off against average or bad pitching. Let’s jump in and see who makes the most sense to attack tonight.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, August 3rd
CHALKY STACKS
Braves vs. Kyle Tyler
Padres vs. Tanner Gordon
It’s before lunchtime on the East Coast, so our Top Stacks tool is still crunching numbers. But its pOWN% looks pretty good, and Atlanta is currently projected to be the highest owned stack on both sites. No team will be super chalky on this big slate, but the Braves have earned the current chalk title, and they’ll square off against an unproven MLB pitcher tonight.
The Braves have the highest implied run total on the slate. Tyler doesn’t have many MLB innings under his belt, but I can tell you that he was pretty bad at Double-A in 2023 across 135 innings, though he was pretty good in a small sample size at Triple-A this year before joining the Marlins.
Tyler, a RHP, has struck out fewer than 20% of hitters at the MLB level across 100-ish plate appearances. He’s been surprisingly good against righties so far, but he’s been subpar vs. lefties – allowing a big .412 wOBA, 11% barrel rate, and walking 13% of them. Last year in Double-A, he was downright bad against both sides of the plate, but in Triple-A, he was also much better against righties than lefties.
The good news for him? Atlanta is projected to send out just three lefties to the plate tonight. I do like them, and they’re all talented. Matt Olson, Jarred Kelenic, and Eddie Rosario are all squarely in play (and Eddie is cheap, with a .165 ISO vs. RHP dating back to last year).
Who knows if or how that high implied run total will be reached? Perhaps it’s just the lefties who will do damage and Tyler just coughs up 3-4 runs and survives another start. Maybe I’m totally wrong, and the Braves will hang a big number. But my favorite angle is only having to worry about (and consider using) the lefties, with the exception of also using Travis d’Arnaud at catcher on DraftKings if he fits.
San Diego currently checks in at the second highest pOWN% on both sites. The Padres will battle against Tanner Gordon, who has given up 15 runs in 15.1 innings at the MLB level this year. Gordon, a righty, has been bad against both sides of the plate, striking out just 16% of hitters and allowing a .373 ISO.
However, through three appearances, his wOBA is a hysterical .608 against righties, and he’s allowed a 16% barrel rate to them. Gordon threw 38.2 innings at Triple-A this year and had an uninspiring 4.89 ERA. When he exits the game, the Padres will see a Rockies bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA and WHIP.
San Diego has the second highest implied run total on the slate. San Diego has ranked just 17th in wRC+ vs. RHP since July 1, but unlike Atlanta, they’ll square off against a pitcher who has found no success against either side of the plate tonight. That makes me like the Padres’ lineup more as a whole. Manny Machado is my favorite hitter in the projected lineup, and he owns a .184 ISO vs. RHP dating back to last season. All-Star Jurickson Profar has hit 4 homers in his last 9 games, and he was robbed of another one last night that won’t show up in the box score. Eight of San Diego’s nine hitters are priced at $4,800 or below on DraftKings, which is nice if you want to pay up for a stud pitcher.
OPTO STACK
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