MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, June 17
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have 9 games on the board for the main slates this afternoon on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several strong offenses in favorable spots, while even some of the high-priced pitching options are fairly vulnerable. There’s a lot to like out there today from a stacking standpoint with a couple of awfully familiar headliners accounting for most of the ownership.
Chalk Stack #1 – Braves vs. Connor Seabold
The chalk on this slate will look an awful lot like the chalk on Friday’s slate. The Braves are checking in as the most popular stack for the third straight day, as they’ll again get to tee off on the Rockies’ middling pitching staff. Connor Seabold will take another turn this afternoon in Atlanta, which happens to have temps around 90 degrees by gametime.
Seabold actually comes into this game in decent form, with no more than 2 runs allowed in any of his last 3 games. The matchups haven’t been easy either, with games at Arizona and Boston in addition to a stellar outing at home in Coors against San Francisco. His 4.70 ERA is perfectly adequate for a guy that pitches half of his games at elevation, but the rest of the numbers say this is a guy we should be stacking against.
Seabold’s 17.6% K-rate isn’t scaring anybody, and the Braves’ lone Achilles heel is strikeouts. If Seabold isn’t missing bats, I like Atlanta’s chances of doing damage. Seabold’s 6.9% barrel rate so far this season is pretty good, but he was north of 10% in each of his last two seasons as a member of the Red Sox. He’s likely due for some regression there, and it may well come today against an offense raking right-handed pitching to the tune of a .341 wOBA and a .193 ISO on the year.
The Braves are on everybody’s radar, of course. Ronald Acuna is awfully expensive, but he’ll still be among the most popular bats on the slate thanks to his incredible power/speed combo. He’s averaging 12.3 DK points per game this season, which is just ridiculous. Austin Riley is mispriced on FanDuel ($3,000), and the full stack is generally easier to afford over there as a result. Seabold’s numbers are equally bad against both lefties and righties, so anybody that cracks the Braves’ lineup is squarely in play for stacking. I’d still start with the power LHBs – Olson, Albies, and Rosario – after Acuna and Riley, but Marcell Ozuna is a useful value around the industry now that he’s remembered how to hit.
The PlateIQ projections say Atlanta is going a little over-owned on both sites, however. They’re pulling 11.2% stack ownership on DK with just a 6.5% chance of being optimal. The gap is a bit smaller on FanDuel, with 9.9% stack ownership and a 6.5% opto%.
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