MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 13
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The Coors Field game pops up on tonight’s 6-game main slate, so we know where ownership will coalesce on the hitting side right off the bat. The Phillies project to be quite popular again today against Ryan Feltner. I’d imagine some will pay attention to the Rockies against lefty Ranger Suarez, but I think just about any full stack that isn’t the Phillies will make your lineups different enough on this slate. The sites have priced things quite differently again tonight, which makes the builds unique on DraftKings and FanDuel.
How should we approach the bats on this 6-gamer? Let’s hop right in.
Here are a few stacks that you should consider tonight in your tournament builds.
Chalk Stack – Phillies vs. Ryan Feltner
Coors Field hasn’t necessarily lived up to expectations this season, but this is still going to be the top hitting environment every single night until further notice. In this particular case, we also happen to have a pretty talented offense facing off against one of the worst pitchers on the board. Would we stack the Phillies against Ryan Feltner if this game were taking place in Philadelphia? The answer is a resounding “yes,” which makes the Philadelphia stack pretty good chalk again tonight.
Feltner has pitched to a 5.08 ERA so far this season, which is actually an improvement on his career 5.90 mark. As it turns out, pitching half of your games in this ballpark is rough, folks. Feltner’s 5.11 SIERA so far this season is actually slightly worse than his ERA, so it’s not like he’s been unlucky, either. The strikeouts (21.7%) are about average, but he’s been undone by an unsightly 13.8% walk rate. That’s a recipe for disaster at any elevation. The Phillies aren’t the most patient lineup, but they do have some disciplined bats in the middle of the order.
Feltenr has only allowed a couple of home runs so far this season, but he’s also made just 2 of his 7 starts so far this season at home. That actually includes one outing against these very Phillies in which he held them scoreless over 5.2 innings of work. Do we care about this? Not even a little bit. The right-hander has no real groundball skills, and his strikeout stuff is completely average against hitters from either side of the plate.
The power lefties – Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber – should be the most popular hitters on the entire slate. Schwarber is particularly cheap on FanDuel ($3,300), along with Trea Turner. They’re the priorities, but we’re also likely to get some decent value with Bryson Stott expected to return to the lineup in the leadoff spot. Ditto for Brandon Marsh after a night off yesterday, but he won’t come quite as cheap around the industry.
After that, we’re stacking the usual RHBs (Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos). Garrett Stubbs is cheap and likely to start at catcher over the injured JT Realmuto, which makes the full stack more affordable. Edmundo Sosa is also a stellar value at his sub-$3,000 salaries on both sites. The Phillies’ 6.21 implied run total is the highest on the slate by a healthy margin, and with good reason.
Philadelphia has a 21.9% chance of being the optimal stack on DraftKings with about 22% adjusted mean projected ownership. That makes them a slightly negatively leveraged stack, but the difference is minimal. The Phillies have a 20.3% opto% on FanDuel with 19.75% projected ownership on the stack. Both numbers on both sites are easily the highest on the slate.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
