MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 20
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Today’s 8-game mid-afternoon slate looks a little different than last night’s 12-gamer. We do likely have another Astros chalk day on tap, but the pitching looks a lot better overall. We don’t have quite as many standout stacks as a result, and ownership figures to coalesce around the teams in obvious spots. How can we get different while keeping that tournament-winning upside? Let’s dig right in.
Chalk Stack- Astros vs. JP Sears
The Astros took their swings against Ken Waldichuk last night with mixed results. Today, they’ll get another vulnerable lefty at home in JP Sears. Sears can get away with pitching in Oakland, but Minute Maid is a much more homer-friendly park for right-handed hitters. Sears can miss some bats (24.6% Ks), but he’s also a flyball machine that will yield power. Sears has one of the highest flyball rates in the majors (55.7%), and he’s been taken to Dongtown 11 times already this year.
Like Waldi before him, Sears brings a very wide platoon split from the left side. Since getting the call to the majors for the first time last season, right-handed hitters boast a .321 wOBA against him. Sears has also allowed 19 homers in his career, all to righties. He’s shown more groundball skills against lefties, but he’s still below average in that regard (39%).
Clearly, Astros stacks start with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman from the right side. Altuve just came off the injured list yesterday, while Bregman has surprisingly struggled at the plate so far this season. I don’t have real concerns about either guy, however, especially in an exploitable spot like this. A lot has been made about the homer-less start to the season for Jose Abreu, but he’s cheap ($2,500 DK, $2,400 FD) and should hit in the middle of the order again today. Even Abreu should be able to hit the ball in the air against Sears. Jeremy Pena is another standout from the right side, while Corey Julks is a cheapie with good power (.263 ISO vs. LHP) in a limited sample.
The righties won’t go overlooked, of course. The Houston stack projects for a slate-high 13.7% ownership on DK with a 12.6% chance of being optimal. We’ve got similar numbers on FanDuel, with 12.7% ownership and a 12.8% opto percentage. A good way to change things up is to mix in the powerful lefties. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have both raked left-handed pitching in their careers, yet lefty-lefty hitters tend to go overlooked in stacks. Tucker is particularly affordable at just $3,100 on FD. I think there’s a chance we see single-digit ownership on Alvarez today, especially with Aaron Judge in a great spot of his own against Luke Weaver in Cincinnati.
Speaking of Judge…
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