MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 27

Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!

MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.

In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

DraftKings and FanDuel have taken starkly different approaches to Saturday’s slates. DK opted to make the 5 evening games starting at 7:15 ET or later into their main slate. FanDuel, meanwhile, is rolling with a 10-gamer that starts at 4:05 ET. As a result, I’ll break down the top stacks for each slate on a site-by-site basis. FD starts earlier, so that’s where we’ll start.

Chalk FD Stack – Astros vs. A’s Bullpen

We’ve got both teams in the WAS/KC game pulling some ownership, but I expect the Astros to wind up as the chalkiest stack on FanDuel today. They get a park downgrade going into Oakland, but the matchup is otherwise fabulous. Houston will be taking their swings against an A’s bullpen game. Bullpen games are generally difficult to attack, but I’ll gladly make an exception today.

That’s because the Athletics’ bullpen is horrendous. Oakland’s relievers have combined to post a 6.43 ERA on the season. The White Sox have the second-highest bullpen ERA…at 5.12. The A’s pen has the second-lowest K-rate (18.9%) and a cartoonishly high 13.7% walk rate on the year. OAK’s projected opener in this one is lefty Hogan Harris, a man that allowed 6 earned runs with 5 walks and no strikeouts in his lone MLB appearance earlier in the season.

The Astros have been frustratingly weak as a chalky stack over the past week or so, but we have to have short memories in DFS. There is absolutely no reason to believe this cavalry of Oakland relievers will pitch well enough to keep Houston from putting runs on the board here. The salaries make Houston pretty easy to stack along with an expensive pitcher, as well. Yordan Alvarez ($4,500) is pricey, but he’s the only one. Jose Altuve ($3,200), Kyle Tucker ($3,300), and Alex Bregman ($3,000) are all too cheap for their respective talent levels on FD. Jeremy Pena ($2,900) and Jose Abreu ($2,400) have struggled this season, but this is certainly a good get-right spot.

Houston’s lineup has a collective .210 ISO with a .352 wOBA against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. Of course, the splits don’t matter all that much considering they’ll be facing multiple arms in this one. The important thing to remember is that most of these pitchers are dreadful, and they should be completely overmatched in this one. Houston’s opto% (11.7%) is slightly lower than their pOWN (12.7%), but that’s still the highest opto% on the slate.

Top FD Pivot – Phillies vs. Charlie Morton

The FanDuel slate is absolutely loaded on the pitching side. There are still some weaker pitchers to target, but stacking against a good pitcher is one way to get a little different. The Phillies against Charlie Morton fit the bill.

Morton got off to a rocky start this season, which seems to happen every year. And, every single year, he eventually bounces back. We’ve seen the same story again this season, though the veteran did get knocked around a bit in his most recent start against the Dodgers. On the season, Morton’s strikeout rate is down to just 23.5%, which is his worst mark since 2015. Morton’s 4.17 SIERA even says his 3.61 ERA may be a bit lucky.

The Phillies haven’t been firing on all cylinders this season, but the talent is there. Morton has also allowed a wOBA of over .330 to left-handed hitters since the beginning of the 2022 campaign. The Phils have 5 LHBs in the projected lineup today, with Bryce Harper ($3,800) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,000) standing out as the daily headliners. Bryson Stott ($2,800) will hit leadoff, while you can save more salary with Brandon Marsh ($2,800) and Kody Clemens ($2,400) with the platoon edge.

Morton is generally tougher on righties, but Trea Turner ($2,800), JT Realmuto ($2,900), and Alec Bohm ($3,000) are all cheaper than they probably should be. Turner is projecting for quite a bit of ownership as a result of that silly salary, and it’s only a matter of time until he remembers how to hit. The Phillies stack comes together similarly to the Houston stack, with one expensive bat and a bunch of way-too-cheap hitters. The lion’s share of that ownership will flock to the Astros’ side, but Philadelphia has a comparable 11.1% chance of being the optimal stack.

Homer Hunting (FD) – Orioles vs. Andrew Heaney

Andrew Heaney is one of the many talented pitchers taking the mound today, but he does have a homer problem. Heaney’s been tagged for 8 homers through 9 starts. He allowed 14 in just 16 games for the Dodgers a season ago, and he served up 29 of them in 30 games between the Angels and Yankees a couple of years ago. He can miss bats, but he’s also a power-prone flyball guy.

The Orioles might be something resembling chalk in this spot a couple of years ago, but Camden Yards isn’t nearly as friendly to right-handed power bats these days. That said, this lineup is still capable of inflicting pain upon left-handed pitching. So far this season, Baltimore’s projected lineup owns a .333 wOBA with a .197 ISO vs. LHPs. Ryan Mountcastle (.394 ISO) and Anthony Santander (.277) are the standouts from the right side, while Adley Rutschman (.351 wOBA) is coming around. Don’t overlook Cedric Mullins lefty-lefty, as he’s done damage (.214 ISO, .341 wOBA) vs. same-handed pitching on the season.

Ramon Urias, Austin Hays, and Jorge Mateo are decent lower-in-the-order bats to consider in your O’s stacks, as well. All 3 have the platoon edge against Heaney, which is useful. All 8 homers allowed by the Rangers’ southpaw have been hit by RHBs along with a .333 wOBA.

We’re also getting positive leverage on this stack. The Orioles project for just 7.7% ownership with an 8.5% chance of being the optimal FD stack this afternoon.

Chalk DK Stack – Mets vs. Chase Anderson

Coors Field headlines the DK 5-game main slate. A small slate with sketchy pitching outside of Shohei Ohtani should lead to significant ownership on the Mets, who will take on Chase Anderson in Denver. As of now, every single hitter in New York’s projected lineup is projecting for at least 18% ownership on DraftKings. Even that might be a little low.

Anderson hasn’t been lit up since joining the Rockies’ rotation, but his last 2 games have come against the Reds and Marlins. The Mets are in another stratosphere from a talent standpoint, even if they haven’t quite lived up to the hype so far this season.

Anderson has changed his pitch mix since coming to Colorado. He’s throwing his cutter more than ever, while he’s essentially cut his curveball and slider from his arsenal. Still, I won’t be buying too much into this tiny 4-game sample. Behind his tidy 1.15 ERA lies a 5.54 SIERA. Anderson’s strikeout rate is still only at 10%, and he’s stranded 87.5% of the runners that have reached base against him.

Pitching to contact in this ballpark is generally a recipe for disaster, especially for a guy that has never been able to keep the ball on the ground. It’s only a matter of time until the regression monster comes for Anderson, and it may well arrive at the Coors Field turnstiles tonight. He’s been an extreme reverse splits guy for years, which vaults Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Francisco Alvarez to the top of the wish list for Mets stacks tonight.

I’m not at all nervous about attacking Anderson with lefties, either. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil fit the bill, and you can find value here from both sides of the plate between Brett Baty ($3,000), Mark Vientos ($3,100), and Mark Canha ($2,300). The only anti-Mets argument I can conjure up is ownership. The Mets have a 23.3% shot at being the optimal stack on this slate, but they’ve also got 26.2% ownership.

Top DK Pivot – Red Sox vs. Zach Davies

No offense looks nearly as good as the Mets do tonight, but we’ll have to find pivots somewhere. The Red Sox look like a pretty good place to start. Chase Field isn’t a park upgrade for Boston, but it’s still a generally favorable hitting environment. The Sox will be taking their swings against Zach Davies, an underwhelming right-hander that’s been sidelined for nearly 2 months by an oblique injury.

Davies isn’t particularly good to begin with, and rust could be a factor in his return to the mound tonight. He’s been able to stick around in the majors for several years, but the numbers say it’s all smoke and mirrors. Davies has a career 4.79 SIERA next to his 4.15 lifetime ERA. He’s been able to skate by inducing soft contact and avoiding walks.

The control has fallen off over the past few years, though. Davies has a walk rate north of 11% since the start of 2021, and strikeouts (17.4%) have never been a part of his game. He has a slight groundball lean, but he’s no Framber Valdez or anything. Davies has allowed at least 20 homers in 3 of the last 4 years, as well.

So, the Sox look like a decent non-Mets stack to target as a result. Davies isn’t very splitsy, but Boston boasts plenty of left-handed power. Rafael Devers should be back in the lineup after missing last night’s game. Devers, Alex Verdugo, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran will all have the platoon edge over the Arizona right-hander. Enmanuel Valdez ($3,100) and Reese McGuire ($2,400) are cheap LHBs worth considering in your stacks.

The cheapies may be necessary considering the salaries on some of these guys. All of Devers, Yoshida, and Verdugo are over $5,000, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Those hefty price tags mean most of the people paying up for bats will instead spend that money on the Mets. Boston still has a sizable 12.8% opto% to go with their 13.2% ownership. There’s slight negative leverage there, but the ownership discount is meaningful.

Max DK Leverage – Rockies vs. Justin Verlander

Shohei Ohtani is the clear-cut SP1 on the DK slate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Justin Verlander garnered some ownership as an SP2. There aren’t many ways to go on the pitching side tonight, and Verlander is quite clearly the best non-Ohtani option available. He’s pitching in Coors, but a matchup against the Rockies still isn’t all that daunting overall. As of now, we have JV projected to be rostered by about a quarter of the field on DraftKings.

Stacking the Marlins against Ohtani is probably the best way to get direct leverage, but stacking Colorado is a little more palatable thanks to the ballpark. It’s Verlander, but it’s still Coors. He’s spent his entire career in the AL, so he has very little experience dealing with the elements here. He’s still a stellar pitcher, but we’ve seen the strikeout rate dip for the 40-year-old over the past couple of seasons. Through just 4 starts this year, Verlander’s K-rate is sitting at a mediocre 20.8%.

The Rockies’ 4.55 total doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s considerably higher than it would be if they were facing Verlander at Citi Field. The projections still aren’t friendly to the Rockies’ underwhelming lineup, but Verlander’s been a reverse-splits flyball guy for his entire career. Taking shots on the likes of Kris Bryant, Elias Diaz, and Randal Grichuk in mini-stacks makes sense. Harold Castro ($2,700) and Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200) are likely the next stops in full stacks for value, but we’re also getting single-digit ownership on Charlie Blackmon ($4,600) and Ryan McMahon ($4,600).

The pro-Rockies argument is they’re going to be fairly contrarian on a short slate in the most hitter-friendly ballpark of them all. It’s really that simple. Even against Verlander, stacking Colorado is very much in play.

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