MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 27
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings and FanDuel have taken starkly different approaches to Saturday’s slates. DK opted to make the 5 evening games starting at 7:15 ET or later into their main slate. FanDuel, meanwhile, is rolling with a 10-gamer that starts at 4:05 ET. As a result, I’ll break down the top stacks for each slate on a site-by-site basis. FD starts earlier, so that’s where we’ll start.
Chalk FD Stack – Astros vs. A’s Bullpen
We’ve got both teams in the WAS/KC game pulling some ownership, but I expect the Astros to wind up as the chalkiest stack on FanDuel today. They get a park downgrade going into Oakland, but the matchup is otherwise fabulous. Houston will be taking their swings against an A’s bullpen game. Bullpen games are generally difficult to attack, but I’ll gladly make an exception today.
That’s because the Athletics’ bullpen is horrendous. Oakland’s relievers have combined to post a 6.43 ERA on the season. The White Sox have the second-highest bullpen ERA…at 5.12. The A’s pen has the second-lowest K-rate (18.9%) and a cartoonishly high 13.7% walk rate on the year. OAK’s projected opener in this one is lefty Hogan Harris, a man that allowed 6 earned runs with 5 walks and no strikeouts in his lone MLB appearance earlier in the season.
The Astros have been frustratingly weak as a chalky stack over the past week or so, but we have to have short memories in DFS. There is absolutely no reason to believe this cavalry of Oakland relievers will pitch well enough to keep Houston from putting runs on the board here. The salaries make Houston pretty easy to stack along with an expensive pitcher, as well. Yordan Alvarez ($4,500) is pricey, but he’s the only one. Jose Altuve ($3,200), Kyle Tucker ($3,300), and Alex Bregman ($3,000) are all too cheap for their respective talent levels on FD. Jeremy Pena ($2,900) and Jose Abreu ($2,400) have struggled this season, but this is certainly a good get-right spot.
Houston’s lineup has a collective .210 ISO with a .352 wOBA against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. Of course, the splits don’t matter all that much considering they’ll be facing multiple arms in this one. The important thing to remember is that most of these pitchers are dreadful, and they should be completely overmatched in this one. Houston’s opto% (11.7%) is slightly lower than their pOWN (12.7%), but that’s still the highest opto% on the slate.
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