MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 6
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Saturdays are for stacking. We’ve got a nice 8-game slate on tap for this Saturday night. Without a lot of high-end pitching, the scales should be tipped in favor of the bats tonight. With the exception of the great Spencer Strider, aces are few and far between out there tonight. We do have what should be a couple of obvious spots for offense, but there will also be plenty of ways to make your GPP builds different enough to reach the top of the leaderboards. Let’s dig into the top stacks for Saturday’s main slate.
Chalk Stack – Royals vs. Ken Waldichuk
Something tells me we’ll be picking on the A’s pitching staff all year long. We’ve already been doing it over the first month of the season, and I see no need to stop tonight. The Royals aren’t anybody’s idea of an elite offense, but they’ve been involved in quite a few shootouts already this week. KC’s last 4 games have finished 11-7, 6-0, 13-10, and 12-8.
We had awesome hitting weather in this same matchup last night, and it looks like we’ll see more of the same here. Kevin Roth says this game will feature temperatures around 90 with steady winds blowing out toward center field. Based on historical data, Roth’s WeatherEdge tool says these conditions boost home runs by 16.9% and total runs by 22.7%. Seems good. Unless you’re a pitcher.
Sources close to the situation say Ken Waldichuk is a pitcher. The A’s hope he’ll be good eventually, but he’s not there yet. Waldi has an ERA north of 7.00 on the young season, and he’s already allowed 10 homers through his first 6 starts. Waldichuk flashed some outstanding strikeout ability at the lower levels of the minors, but they haven’t yet translated to the top level. The lefty’s K-rate is sitting at just 17.4% so far this season. If a strikeout pitcher isn’t getting strikeouts, he’s going to have a very tough time limiting damage.
The Royals’ lineup is full of kids, but most of these kids are alright. Bobby Witt is the clear headliner. A .237 average and a .716 OPS don’t jump off the page, but 8 stolen bases add to his DFS appeal. Kansas City has 21 steals as a team on the season, with Edward Olivares (3), Hunter Dozier (2), Nicky Lopez (2), and Nate Eaton (2) all trailing Witt by a decent margin.
Salvador Perez isn’t a threat to run as the only old man in this lineup, but he still brings some slug to the table. Perez has a .225 ISO against southpaws since the beginning of last season. He, Witt, and Olivares are all over .200. Vinnie Pasquantino in the lefty-lefty spot is an interesting way to get different. He hasn’t hit for a ton of power vs. LHPs (.118 ISO), but he’s still getting on base (.383 wOBA) without striking out (10.8%) much. MJ Melendez is another lefty that has fared quite well (.190 ISO, .356 wOBA) against lefties over the past couple of years.
With the exception of Witt and Sal, these guys are cheap. Olivares stands out as one of the better values on the slate at any position. Stacking KC and paying up for Strider will be an awfully popular way to build tonight, however. KC’s adjusted mean ownership percentage is the highest on the slate on both DraftKings (15.7%) and FanDuel (12.1%). Interestingly enough, our PlateIQ projections don’t give the Royals the highest opto% on either site. They’re at just 7.6% on DK and 7.8% on FanDuel.
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