MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 23
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things quite differently on this fine Saturday. DK was rolling with a 9-game main slate starting at 1:05 ET, but it’s already down to an 8-gamer following the Nats-Braves postponement. With more ugly weather in New York, Boston, and Philly, this one could be hacked down to a 5-gamer pretty easily. FanDuel, meanwhile, split up their afternoon games and settled on a 5-game evening slate kicking off at 6:40 ET.
With a grand total of zero games of overlap, that complicates things from a content perspective. Instead of the usual arrangement, I’ll identify a couple of stacks worth targeting on each site.
DK Chalk Stack – Cubs vs. Chris Flexen
When in doubt, stack against the Rockies’ pitcher. That’s a rule of thumb that generally works better in Colorado, but we’ll take what we can get on this slate. The Cubs should run out a full-strength lineup as they continue their Wild Card chase this afternoon at home against veteran journeyman Chris Flexen. Chicago’s 5.25 implied run total also happens to be the highest on the slate.
Flexen has been pitching to a strong right-handed reverse split for years, and we’ve seen more of the same this season. Righties have tattooed the KBO legend to the tune of a gaudy .434 wOBA and 16 homers on the year, while he’s struck them out at a middling 12.9% clip. Christopher Morel ($5,000), Dansby Swanson ($5,300), and Seiya Suzuki ($4,400) won’t come cheap, but they’re all decent power threats on the preferred side of the split.
Of course, lefties have also been Flexen their muscles against this guy, too. LHBs have a .355 wOBA with 7 more dingers of their own, so it’s not like we’re scared off of Mike Tauchman ($3,700), Cody Bellinger ($6,500), or Ian Happ ($4,700) from the other side of the plate. That Bellinger salary is wild, but it’s hard to say he hasn’t earned it with an OPS pushing .900 on the season.
The only downside for the bats here is the wind of around 10 mph blowing in from right field. That’s significant in a park as heavily impacted by wind as Wrigley is, but it’s difficult to get too picky on this slate. The Cubs should be putting the ball in play against Flexen, and I still like their chances of doing damage here.
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