MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, June 11
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Both sites are very different today because Coors is on the FD slate, but not on DK. This dynamic makes for less ownership of the Braves on FD and a lot more on DK. We’ll discuss: how to navigate the chalk on both sites; a phenomenal, underowned pivot; and a solid leverage play that is sneaky as a result of the teams gobbling up ownership at the top.
Chalk Stack – Braves vs. Trevor Williams and Guardians vs. Brandon Bielak
This is a little tricky. The Braves are chalk on both sites, but FD has the SD-COL game on their main slate, making the Padres the chalky chalk over there.
We can knock out the Padres in a quick sentence or three. It’s a talented, power-packed lineup in Coors against a pitcher who just cannot throw strikes. His command is so terrible that I said “cannot” instead of “can’t” for effect. We’re talking 6.06 BB/9 in 49.0 IP since the start of 2022. The Padres will be 25-35% owned in FD single-entry and small-fields, so be careful. This is good chalk, but it’s immense chalk.
The Braves aren’t really a pivot off of the Padres because they’re so high owned, but they kinda’ are on FD because the Padres cap their ownership. On DK, the Braves will be the chalkiest of chalky chalk, though.
This is because they draw Trevor Williams, who has had a long career of not keeping the ball in the ballpark. Since the start of 2022, he’s surrendered 1.44 HR/9 on a 10.1% barrel rate — 1.78 on 13.3% with an 83.1% contact rate this season. His command isn’t terrible. He just doesn’t miss bats and serves them up.
This is a huge boost for a Braves lineup that can mash just about anyone. Dating back to last season, every Brave we project to be in the lineup has a barrel rate over 7.0%, led by six guys with double-digit rates:
Matt Olson (15.0%)
Austin Riley (14.2%)
Ronald Acuna (13.5%)
Marcell Ozuna (13.7%)
Sean Murphy (12.1%)
Michael Harris (10.0%)
Williams barely cracks 90 mph and these guys hit the ball really hard. Over 50% of the Braves lineup’s contact is at least 95 mph. This is a monstrous situation.
To a lesser degree, the Guardians will be high-owned as a secondary stack, as we see Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez among the most-owned players on the slate. The full stack will be well in the single digits (for good reason), but Naylor and Ramirez will be chalky against Brandon Bielak, who struggles greatly with power prevention.
Bielak has given up 1.62 HR/9 on a slate-high 13.1% barrel rate.
The issue then becomes not if we want to play Naylor and Ramirez, but how. We should be playing them together and not as one-offs because correlation bumps up our leverage. We should be more inclined to stack them three ways with Andres Gimenez or Amed Rosario; or with Josh Bell where we can play two 1Bs on the FD. We should avoid playing them with the Padres or Braves full stacks, as that is how the field will most likely play them. We should really try to get a full stack of this team to give us a huge boost of leverage.
We shouldn’t blindly play chalk for projection. We should re-shape the chalk into leverage plays in all tournament formats.
All three of these teams can be played in single-entry. Just not together. The Padres and Guardians can be underweight plays, but we should get overweight on the Braves.
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