MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, March 31st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got 10 MLB games on the board on this Easter Sunday, and it looks like weather won’t screw things up for us, fortunately. Saturday’s slate was filled with high-scoring games, though a grand total of 1 team on Sunday’s main slate has an implied run total of at least 5 runs. That would be the Reds, who will take their hacks at home against middling Nats right-hander Jake Irvin.
Things could be spread out on the ownership front with teams like the Dodgers and Diamondbacks not on the slate, but we shall see. Here’s how we’ll be stacking ‘em up on this fine Sunday.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, March 31st
Chalk Stacks – Reds vs. Jake Irvin, Twins at Brady Singer
The Reds were fairly quiet with the lumber yesterday, but they’re facing another advantageous matchup today in their bandbox of a home ballpark against Jake Irvin.
Irvin wasn’t a full gas can last season, but nothing about his numbers should scare us away from the Reds. He posted a 4.61 ERA, a 5.09 SIERA, an 18.7% strikeout rate, and a walk rate of over 10%. He was also barreled more than 10% of the time, which explains how he served up 20 homers in 24 games.
Irvin brings an average platoon split from the right side, and lefties (.366 wOBA, 14 HR) enjoyed more success at his expense than their right-handed counterparts (.296 wOBA, 6 HR). The Reds are projected to throw 5 lefties his way today, and all have some power. Will Benson should be a headliner again today at his cheap salaries around the industry, while Jeimer Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley, and 2-homer hero Nick Martini all finished with ISOs of at least .200 against right-handed pitching a season ago. Martini’s numbers came in a tiny 67-plate appearance sample size, but hey, still counts.
No single offense is going to have a super-high optimal percentage on such a large slate. On DraftKings, Cincy’s opto rate of around 4% is half of their projected stack ownership percentage. It’s a similar tale on FanDuel, with 8% projected stack ownership compared to about a 5% shot at being optimal.
The Twins look a bit better in projections than the Reds do, yet they’re not expected to fly under the radar either. Minnesota will face Brady Singer, a former top prospect coming off a ghastly 2023 campaign.
Last year, Singer posted a career-worst 5.52 ERA, though his 4.46 SIERA indicates he was the victim of some misfortune. He still kept the ball on the ground at a respectable 49.5% clip, though his 18.9% K rate was the lowest of his 4 years in the majors.
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