MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, May 1
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a six-game main slate this evening that features no aces. There should be plenty of bats to like on this slate. We do have some potential rain lurking, but nothing that is looking too likely to cause a postponement. Be sure to check out the MLB Weather page for the full breakdown from Kevin Roth. I’m guessing we are going to have the “all clear” from Roth for bats tonight, but make sure to tune into CrunchTime for the most up-to-date information leading up to lock.
Chalk Stack – Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber
The Blue Jays head to Fenway Park today to take on the Red Sox. They get a matchup with the well-past-his-prime Corey Kluber. It has been a rough season so far for Kluber who has posted a 6.75 ERA through five starts. Underlying metrics do not suggest he is likely to turn it around anytime soon. His SIERA sits at 5.00 and he has allowed just a .246 BABIP, while striking out just 18.9% of batters faced. He pitches in a home run park, and he has allowed 50% fly balls and a career-high 10.5% Barrels so far this season.
The Jays have again been an above-average offense, although not quite at the elite levels we saw in 2022. They rank 13th in wOBA (.327) and have posted a 109 wRC+. The good news is they are affordable for their upside and there is no $10k+ stud pitcher to pay up for tonight (unless you’re interested in paying $10,500 for MacKenzie Gore on FanDuel.) George Springer is the name that jumped off the page to me first with his $3,100 salary tag on FanDuel. Daulton Varsho is also a bit underpriced there at $3,000, and he is just $4,300 on DraftKings. Other elite options include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Matt Chapman is off to a scorching hot start this season and has been Toronto’s best hitter so far with a .303 ISO and .486 wOBA. There is ridiculous power upside in the first five names in the order, but that is not all this Jays’ lineup has to offer. Brandon Belt is an extreme value on both sites, and Danny Jansen fills a weak catcher position for a reasonable price. Our SlateIQ tool has the Jays as the most likely stack to win the slate (14.85%), but early ownership projections have the field rostering them at a rate slightly higher than that. They are the top projected stack for a reason, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find useful pivots with just as much upside elsewhere on the slate.
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