MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, April 11th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a small 5-game afternoon slate to work with today. I heard there’s a golf tournament that’s supposed to start today…perhaps that’s why there isn’t a ton of baseball to be had? There are a few weather spots to keep an eye on, so be sure to watch for some Kevin Roth updates on our weather page.
Let’s dive in.
Editor’s Note: The MIN/DET game has been postponed to make this a 4-game main slate.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, April 11th
CHALK STACK
Rangers vs. JP Sears
Southpaw J.P. Sears coughs up home runs in bunches, so I’m sure the Rangers are licking their chops right now. And more good news is that Sears won’t be throwing in the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum.
Sears gave up 32 dingers last season, and 28 of them were to righties. But you can’t omit lefties against him. Last season, he faced way less lefties but gave up a slash line of .323/.388/.548 against them. Although Corey Seager is expensive, he remains one of the top bats on the slate.
Sears owns a massive 49% career fly-ball rate and a 1.57 HR/9 ratio (1.78 last season). His pitch mix still isn’t fooling anyone, with a career 51% four-seam fastball frequency. It looked like he threw his sweeper a bit more during his last start, but that’s not moving the needle for me. Sears remains one of the most predictable pitchers in baseball.
The 2024 season is young, but the Rangers rank in the top half of the league in most advanced metrics vs. LHP. There isn’t anyone in their projected lineup that I’d tell you to shy away from.
Outside of the obvious targets, Ezequiel Duran has earned more playing time with Josh Jung on the shelf. Last season, he was sneaky good against LHP, with a .227 ISO, .363 wOBA, and a 57.6% hard-hit rate (which was higher than the hard-hit rate for Seager and Adolis Garcia in 2023). I think you can also play Duran as a one-off today.
I have no issue stacking the Rangers every which way on this slate. They should roll at home.
PIVOT STACK
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