MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, April 13
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Welcome back to another Thursday! We have a small Thursday night main slate beginning at 6:35 p.m. ET. There are a few day games scattered in the mix, but we’re going to focus on that late window tonight. There’s not much to choose from, so we’re likely looking at some condensed ownership in certain places.
Chalk Stacks – Blue Jays vs. Spencer Turnbull, Cardinals vs. Vince Velasquez
Both of these teams have projected team totals north of five runs on Thursday. However, I think it’s a great night to commit to a full stack for both of these teams in tournaments. Despite some heavy, obvious chalk, there are some hitters in each lineup that appear to be criminally under-owned – according to early pOWN% projections.
Why pick on Spencer Turnbull?
Well, the guy hasn’t pitched much across the last few years due to injuries – and it’s showing. Turnbull has given up 12 earned runs and 13 hits across eight innings in 2023. He posted just a 1% swinging-strike rate against Boston last time out. Not good, not good at all.
Turnbull may literally be trying to “figure it out” again. He threw 40% fastball and 28% slider during his first game against Tampa (via Fangraphs) and 63% fastball and just 6% slider in his second outing. A pitcher trying to wing it against Toronto doesn’t sound like it’ll end well.
Another issue for Turnbull here is that Toronto is arguably one of the best slider-hitting teams in the league. Seven of the Jays’ projected starters (via PlateIQ) have hard-contact rates north of 40% (and low whiff rates) against slider offerings from right-handed pitchers. Matt Chapman needs to be considered an integral Blue Jay asset for DFS. He’s leading the league in barrel percentage and is going through one of the most impressive stretches of his career. However, he’s currently projected to come in as the EIGHTH most popular Blue Jay tonight on DraftKings. C’mon! It’s surely a price thing, but I love that look for tournaments.
Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho are popping against Turnbull due to a good price, splits, and a solid history against his pitch mix. This again warrants a full stack, as it seems possible to incorporate Chapman and even Vlad Guerrero at very generous ownerships on a five-game slate. Early pOWN% have Vlad checking in at just 12%.
For what it’s worth, Chapman is the lowest-priced Blue Jay to hit a home run on Caesars Sportsbook – meaning Vegas thinks he has the best odds to go deep tonight. Fire up Chapman!