MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 24
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Another Thursday, another calendar day of games split up into multiple slates. Tonight’s main has just five games. You know the drill, there will be a ton of condensed ownership in certain places. Let’s dive in and check it out.
Chalk Stack – White Sox vs. Ken Waldichuk
It’s August, and by now we know that the public will seemingly always stack against Ken Waldichuk. This should remain especially true tonight on a small five-game slate.
I certainly can’t fault anyone for going this route, as Waldichuk has yielded a .218 ISO, .318 wOBA, and an 8% barrel rate. His ERA is almost six and he’s given up 18 home runs in 2023. Chicago is projected to roll out at least seven right-handed hitters against him tonight.
Luis Robert is one of the top bats on the slate due to his .269 ISO and 18% barrel rate vs. left-handed pitching this season. Trayce Thompson is an interesting punt option. You’re getting a Joey Gallo-lite version of a hitter here though, as he owns a K rate north of 40%, but also a 19% barrel rate against southpaws in 2023.
All of that being said, Waldichuk hasn’t been horrific across the last 30 days. He’s actually been borderline league-average for the most part, giving up no more than two earned runs in his last three starts.
Our top stacks and values tool projects the Sox to be about 23% owned with a 16% chance of being optimal on DraftKings. Those numbers are the highest regarding both sites for each category, but the gap between ownership and optimal percentage is much larger on DraftKings. They’ll be chalkier over there, or so it seems.
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