MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, July 20
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a strange little seven-game main slate for Thursday afternoon. There are plenty of good pitchers on the mound today, so let’s dive in and figure out how to handle it.
Chalk Stack- Mets vs. Michael Kopech
We see flashes of Kopech’s ceiling from time to time, but that’s about it right now.
Kopech has given up a putrid 14% barrel rate this season, a hard-contact rate north of 50%, and a high fly-ball lean. He’s striking out nobody and walking pretty much anyone with a pulse. There aren’t many positive notes on him right now, so it’s no surprise that the Mets are popular and checking a lot of boxes on a small slate.
There are still a few ways to make sure your Mets stacks are a bit different. Pete Alonso hasn’t been producing since returning from injury and RotoGrinders is currently projecting him at single-digit ownership. Kopech is throwing about 60% of fastballs to hitters, and despite Alonso’s recent poor play, he still owns a massive .377 ISO against that pitch from right-handed pitchers in 2023.
Francisco Alvarez has been absolutely tearing the cover off the baseball. He’s very tough to ignore in any Mets stack, but his projected ownership might get a bit out of control in single-entry-type contests at a position without many great options on Thursday.
Our top stacks and top value tool projects the Mets as the highest-owned stack with the worst differential when comparing pOWN% and chances to be optimal. However, sometimes the chalk hits and I still think Kopech will give up some hard contact, but make sure to differentiate your lineup somewhere else to be unique.
Perhaps at pitcher or grab a (projected) low-owned secondary stack?
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