MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, July 6
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a small-ish seven-game slate tonight. Just two teams project to be a bit chalky early in the day, which sets up for a fun night. Let’s dive in and check it out!
Chalk Stacks – Guardians vs. Jordan Lyles, Rangers vs. Kutter Crawford
These two are currently projected to be the highest-owned stacks via our top stacks and top values tool.
Let’s start with Cleveland. Keep an eye on Kevin Roth’s weather updates, as he currently has this game listed as “yellow/orange,” with a mild level of concern, but as we know, that could change by roster lock.
The Guardians are currently projected to carry 15% ownership, but they have just an 8% chance of being optimal according to our tool. We know Lyles is quite prone to giving up the long ball, sporting a .238 ISO and an 11% barrel rate in 2023.
However, the stack tool projections make a fair amount of sense to me based on a bunch of guys being over-owned, while some of this lineup just doesn’t have enough raw power or stolen-base upside – especially with Josh Naylor on the shelf.
Jose Ramirez is always appealing, but he’s carrying a hefty individual ownership number. That being said, there’s no way I’m excluding him from my player pool tonight. I can’t fault anybody for singling out some power bats (or a mini stack) here, but I don’t think I’m rolling with a full stack.
Let’s chat about the Rangers, whose stack pOWN% is currently the highest on the slate at roughly 20% against Crawford. But unlike Cleveland, RotoGrinders projects Texas with the highest chance of being optimal.
The Rangers have arguably the best offense in baseball, but their DFS price tags reflect that. They’ll be expensive and a little tougher to work in. Crawford has shown flashes of his potential, but that’s about it. He owns a .183 ISO to both sides of the plate and yields an underwhelming 10% barrel rate to lefties.
Another advantage for Texas today is the 10th hitter in the lineup – Mother Nature.
Roth’s WeatherEdge tool likes this environment for hitters, with a 15% boost in home run chances and a 12% bump in total runs scored. The weather sample size is more than 160 games, so this isn’t a flukey dart throw of an angle. Stack ‘em up.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
