MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, May 11
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Three-game slates are never exciting. Everyone on the board will carry some type of ownership tonight. Let’s dive in and talk about the chalk and a spot or two to differentiate lineup builds tonight.
Chalk Stack – Rangers vs. TBD
It doesn’t matter who will allegedly start for Oakland on the mound. The Rangers currently own a projected team total well north of five. It could be minor-league journeyman Zach Neal or Luis Medilal getting the call. Maybe neither?
If Medina does indeed pitch, he has one MLB start under his belt this season and he was tattooed for seven runs against the Angels. He’s appeared in five AAA games this season, tossing 13 innings, issuing 15 walks and 11 earned runs. This seems like his pitch count could be high and we could get into that atrocious Oakland bullpen, which owns an MLB-worst 6.87 (LOL, not a baseball acronym, I am laughing) ERA and has served up 24 home runs.
If Neal takes the mound, he’s been nothing but a subpar minor-league pitcher (no offense, Zach, I respect the hustle) throughout his career. The 34-year-old hurler has recorded no better than a 4.23 ERA across any level since he’s been pitching. Neal has had a brief cup of coffee or two in the bigs and it has gone as expected.
Using our top stacks and stack values tools, Texas is sandwiched directly in the middle of the slate (among both sites) regarding the chance to be optimal, value and ownership. I’ve been bullish on Texas this year. I will say, they’ve been much better at home, but despite the ballpark downgrade in Oakland, I can’t underestimate the state of the A’s staff and their bullpen.
Additionally, the A’s not only used three arms in their pen yesterday in NEW YORK, but the MLB scheduling gods made them travel home across three time zones following their bout with the Yankees in the Bronx yesterday? Brutal.
Personally, with limited options, I’d like to stack TEX every which way tonight. Any time I see Josh Jung at a pOWN% less than 20% on a three-game slate in an elite matchup, I’m going to start my builds with him. He’s still quite underappreciated and is budding into a young star.
There is ownership everywhere tonight. Of course, I like the Giants against Tommy Henry quite a bit on this slate. SFG checks out as the best chance to be optimal (via top stacks tool), but with that, also comes more ownership. When comparing their stack ownership and optimal percentage, it appears they’re going to be the most over-owned on the slate. I’m sticking with the Rangers as a bit more of a priority for me between both offenses.
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