MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday May 4
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There are nine games on the main slate Thursday afternoon. It’s still pretty chilly for May 4th and there are only a few decent hitting environments in terms of weather conditions across the country. However, it’s always peak long-ball season at Coors Field, where the Brewers and Rockies will collide again. If you’ve played DFS before, you know that Patrick Corbin is surely targettable on any main slate. The Cubs have a high projected run total, but due to poor weather conditions, I am likely going to look for mini stacks or single out some power bats in that game.
Let’s dive in!
Chalk Stack – Brewers vs. Connor Seabold
Milwaukee is projected to carry a ton of rightful ownership at Coors Field today against Connor Seabold.
Seabold has been downright bad since the beginning of 2022, sporting a .273 ISO to righties, .244, and an xFIP over six. While he’s struggled against both sides of the plate, his massive 57% fly-ball rate against lefties has me favoring those Brewers a bit more. His numbers are certainly a little better this year, although it’s a small sample size.
Seabold has only pitched more than three innings once this season. It would appear he doesn’t have a long leash and we’ll see some long relievers out of the Rockies bullpen. Carty’s THE BAT system has him projected for 72 pitches. There’s no sugarcoating it – he simply isn’t a great pitcher. Last season, in the bigs, he yielded 23 runs in 18.1 innings, serving up five home runs.
However, to his credit, he was quite serviceable in AAA last season, owning a 3.63 ERA, striking 89 batters in 86 innings. However, Seabold throws well over 50% of fastballs to hitters, which is another reason why Milwaukee is in a good spot today. I’m looking for Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames to lead the charge for the Brew Crew.
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