MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, September 14
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a messy, small Thursday main slate on our hands tonight. The second leg of the Yankees vs. Red Sox doubleheader is available on DraftKings, but it’s not offered on FanDuel.
Additionally, there is a significant chance of a PPD at Coors Field in Denver. Our guy Kevin Roth currently has it labeled with an Orange/Red tag. That’s not good. Please tune into MLB Crunch Time (presented by FanDuel) for the latest updates before roster lock tonight!
Chalk Stack – Twins vs. Jose Urena
According to our top stacks tool, the Twins project to be the highest-owned stack on FanDuel and the second highest on DraftKings.
The current margin between pOWN% between the Twins and Giants is minuscule. However, if the forecast continues to look terrible as we inch closer to roster lock, I believe we’ll see more ownership on the Twins and much less on the Giants.
What can you say about Jose Urena at this point?
He’s pitched in six games and has given up at least four runs during four of them. Minnesota should get their hacks in and work into that White Sox bullpen, as Urena has thrown no more than 75 pitches in any of his appearances.
While he still does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground (I’m trying to find one nice thing to say about him), he is getting barreled more than he was last year and is yielding a massive 57% hard-contact rate.
Urena is striking out a miserable 6.8% of lefties (10.5% of hitters overall) and a disgusting .393 ISO. Things are not good. On this four or five-game slate (depending on site), there isn’t one Minnesota hitter that I would trim out of my player pool.
Despite his decent ground-ball rate, he has given up two home runs in four of his six starts in 2023. I surely would not forget about righty-mashing Matt Wallner who is projected to be buried in the 9-hole. But he has slate-winning upside in this matchup with a current 13% pOWN% on DraftKings.
It’s difficult to turn away from the Twins – especially if the Coors forecast doesn’t look good. However, I do totally understand chasing some hypothetical single-digit-owned Giants in large-field stuff. I’d recommend not using these Minnesota stacks with the pitcher with the highest projected ownership.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
