MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, September 7
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s NFL opening night, so we have a fairly small main slate of MLB games on tap. Looks like there will be one expensive powerhouse that’s more popular than the rest of the slate. Let’s dive in for a closer look.
Chalk Stack – Braves vs. Adam Wainwright
If you’ve been playing MLB DFS or simply following baseball, you probably knew this one was coming. Atlanta has the best offense in the league and will square off with Adam Wainwright tonight, who had a remarkable career, but those days are long gone.
The Braves projected run total is over SEVEN (7!!), which is pretty crazy for any game – let alone one not being played at Coors Field. Waino is striking out a putrid 11% of hitters while yielding a .228 ISO, .428 wOBA, and an 11% barrel rate.
Six hitters in the Atlanta projected lineup have ISOs north of .200 against righties this season. This is an ideal matchup in the sense that the Braves don’t draw walks and Wainwright walks next to nobody. Five of these hitters own double-digit barrel rates vs. righties, while six of them have strong fly ball and line-drive rates.
Wainwright has an ERA over 8 and has given up at least 7 earned runs in 5 of his last 10 starts. I’m not really sure what else to say at this point.
Our top stacks tool projects the Braves to be the chalkiest stack on both sites with the highest optimal rate on FanDuel. However, Atlanta checks in at the fourth-highest optimal percentage on DraftKings, which could be a result of the very high pricing of the Braves bats.
According to the tool, it appears Atlanta is the much-preferred option on FanDuel compared to DraftKings, as they have the largest negative difference in optimal percentage and ownership on DK.
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