MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 25
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Pitching is gonna be spread out, but on DK, the chalky build will be an expensive SP1 with a salary saver. So, right off the bat, I’m looking to pay up at SP2 or bargain-hunt at both spots; that way, my build will automatically be different, and I can — therefore — play whoever I want. And this is a good slate to create a situation where we don’t have to worry too much about ownership because so many teams are coagulating at the top that they’re capping each other’s ownership. Today, we’ll splice through those top-owned teams, identify the top underowned spots to differentiate, target a big power spot at low exposure, and try to figure out what the hell to do about the Cardinals.
Chalk Stacks – Blue Jays, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Angels
If you asked me where chalk is most likely to develop in small fields and single-entry, I’d easily say the Jays against Mike Clevinger because he’s a mess and the Jays have a very sexy lineup. In MME, these four teams are cannibalizing each other, but in single-entry, there’s always that stack that’s 35% owned. And this is good chalk.
Clevinger is a shell of the peak we saw some time ago. In 133.2 IP since 2022, he’s only logged 7.14 K/9 to go with 3.10 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9 on a 9.3% barrel rate. High contact with low power prevention in power-boosted Rogers Centre against these Jays is a recipe for disaster. Add that the White Sox bullpen has been really bad and we have what should be the highest-projected and top-owned team on the slate. The Jays have the second-highest Opto% in our tools, but we’ll discuss how fragile the top team is later.
With the Jays in the Royals and Diamondbacks in an open-roof situation in Arizona. The ball can really fly today and the Royals can be fun, but they’re still a bad lineup.
Since 2022, the Royals projected lineup only has a .282 wOBA and .138 ISO with a 36.8% FB rate. They’re fine because the environment will be ripe for run-scoring against an extreme flyball pitcher in Ryne Nelson. They are a top pivot off of the Jays chalk in SE, but it will cost too many lineups for my taste to go overweight in MME.
The same can be said of the Diamondbacks. They’re a better offense than the Royals, but Brady Singer is really good. Only 2.12 BB/9 with a 1.56 GB:FB ratio since 2022. The Diamondbacks are pesky in that they don’t strike out and they run a lot, but their lineup’s 45.4% GB rate to the 33.2% FB rate since 2022 against righties tells me they fall directly into Singer’s trap too often when measured up against their ownership.
The Angels are projected for double-digit ownership on both sites, as well. This is a dangerous spot becuase Mason Miller is a very, very talented pitcher. I liked this spot a lot more before pOWN% came out because I thought we’d have a lot of leverage here with people wanting to use MIller as a salary saver. Turns out the field is ignoring Miller and flocking toward the Angels.
Without the leverage, we could easily cross off the Angels against big-time power pitcher, but Miller likely won’t pitch very deep, regardless of performance, and the A’s bullpen is a pile of dung. So, we’re not crossing off mini-stacks or even full stacks. Five innings of the A’s bullpen could still yield ten runs in this hitters’ ballpark.
The Jays are probably the most likely to succeed in this group, followed by the Angels, then the Royals and Diamondbacks. But I prefer our pivots in this space to the Royals and Diamondbacks, so I’m gonna — personally — just cross them off the list for single-entry and small fields.