MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 4th
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have 22 teams in action with ten pitchers carrying SIERAs over 4.20 from last season, but none over 4.80. So this slate not being great for pitching doesn’t absolve it from being a bit tricky for stacks. With this dynamic of the below average pitchers being so close, I — personally — like to just x-out the chalk and work from there however I want.
Chalk Stacks — Blue Jays vs. Kris Bubic and Rays vs. Chad Kuhl
The Jays and the Rays are the stacks projecting to be in the double digits. For good reason. Kris Bubic and Chad Kuhl have the highest SIERAs on the slate, both have high contact rates, both have terrible command, and Kuhl allowed 1.64 HR/9 on a 9.7% barrel rate last season, granting these teams very high projections. Especially considering that neither are playing in extreme ballparks tonight.
We do have legitimate aces in Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber on this slate costing a butt-ton of money, so that should cap the Jays ownership, as stacking them with one of those two — let alone both — can be cumbersome. But if we gonna go Jays, we should find a way to jam in one of the aces. The field will use the Jays with Framber Valdez or Andrew Heaney or Luis Castillo to save some money. Though these aces won’t be low-owned and the Jays won’t be low-owned, the combo of the Jays with Max or Bieber will go lower owned.
The Rays are like a bad version of the Angels that somehow wins more games. There’s Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, and then a bunch of guys. Their whole lineup is pretty good. Just not sexy. But against the worst pitcher on the slate, good is sexy enough. Yandy Diaz looks like a superstar when he gets the ball off the ground. Wander Franco has flashes of brilliance in him. Jose Siri has some pop. Luke Raley doesn’t project well on the season, but he hit 33 HRs in just under 600 PAs in Triple-A across the last two seasons.
Neither of these teams are “bad chalk,” so to speak. It’s just that neither are great chalk. The Jays are in a terrible ballpark in Kauffman Stadium and chalky Rays just — well — feels icky.
You’re totally allowed to play either one of these teams without getting laughed at. Just do it in the right lineups by surrounding them with leverage. I’m fading in single entry, but you can play plus-EV lineups with these teams. In MME, I wouldn’t fade (especially the Jays), but I’d be underweight.