MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, August 1
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s a huge slate, so lots of stacks are in play, but Coors Field and the Dodgers should dominate the conversation. In this space, we’ll examine Coors and the Dodgers with bad pitching, fulfill an obligation to mention the Braves, and look to three spots where we can stack against pitchers who will be owned. Today is the trade deadline, so remember that lineups can change as we get closer to lock with late scratches.
Chalk Stacks – Padres at Peter Lambert and Dodgers vs. Ken Waldichuk
The Padres are a talented offense, facing a bad starter, who’ll be followed by a bad bullpen — in Coors Field.
The Rockies will not necessarily be throwing a bullpen game qua bullpen game in that Peter Lambert is projected for a pitch count in the mid-70s. He’s given up 3.38 BB/9 and 1.79 HR/9 on a 12.1% barrel rate, but they will get the pen for a good chunk of the game. He’s been worse against lefties (13.6% barrel rate), but righties have smashed him, too (10.0%), as he’s been hit hard at least 50% of the time by both sides of the plate. As for that pen: THE BAT projects the Rockies to have the sixth-worst bullpen in MLB for the remainder of the season.
In this run-scoring environment with this matchup, the Padres feel automatic, but we should note that: (a) there are serious weather concerns; and (b) the projected ownership might fluctuate with the severity of the weather concerns. I mostly fade Coors, but I do like gambling against weather in Coors because weather concerns make the teams under-owned. So, if the game PPD’s, I lose; if the game plays, I get an under-owned stack that can break the slate. This isn’t a recommendation; just my approach. On a full slate, there’s obviously no need to take on this risk.
If you wanna play a strong projection and aren’t worried about ownership and don’t wanna deal with the weather, the Dodgers are the stack that is most likely to break the slate outside of Coors. Facing Ken Waldichuk and his slate-worst 5.42 BB/9 allowed with his 1.70 HR/9 and a bullpen as bad as the Rockies, the talent of the Dodgers should more than win out in a great home run ballpark.
Waldichuk hasn’t been hit hard and in the air by righties this season, but the ISO splits don’t lie. Waldichuk has given up a .256 ISO to lefties and a .227 ISO to righties since the start of 2022.
The A’s pen hasn’t been as horrid as they were to start the season. Their strikeouts are up and their walks are down, but with throwing more strikes has come an uptick in hard-hit rate and therefore barrel rate. The A’s pen has given up an 8.5% barrel rate over the last 30 days and is projected by THE BAT to be the fifth-worst bullpen in MLB for the remainder of the season.
The Padres and Dodgers are going to project very well for good reasons: great matchups, great ballparks, and the possibility that one or the other gets under-owned. I’m leaning toward not playing them together because we compound too much ownership, meaning that we’ll have to take a hard stand on one, the other, or neither in single-entry. In MME, it’s gonna cost a lot of lineups to go overweight. We’ll have to watch the weather and gauge our exposure from there. If the Padres lose ownership, the Dodgers could become over-owned.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
