MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 18
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Huge slate with tons of options. The first thing that stands out to me isn’t the power prevention of the pitching so much as the great home run ballparks that could fly under the radar with Coors on the slate — namely Cincinnati and Arlington (and, to a lesser degree, Toronto, Anaheim, and Seattle). The next dynamic is that power prevention. There are eight pitchers on this slate with at least 1.50 HR/9 allowed in at least 50.0 IP; four of whom have allowed double-digit barrel rates, so stacking against Daniel Lynch and his 1.33 HR/9 in Kansas City’s terrible park for power is a lot less appealing tonight than it would be on your average slate, for example.
As always, we’ll start with the chalk, explore how to best pivot off of the chalk, and then identify the best spot for leverage on the field. We can’t cover everything on a 14-game slate where at least dozen teams are stackable. We’ll just have a tight focus in this space.
Chalk Stack – Astros at Rockies Bullpen
THE BAT ranks the Rockies bullpen in the bottom-five, moving forward. It’s bad news.
Their power prevention hasn’t been horrible, but the unit isn’t missing bats (21.3% K rate) and has allowed a near-10% BB rate. The barrel rate is low (6.9%) because the groundballs are high (44.1%) and the flyball rate is on the lower side (25.1%). But the hard-hit rate allowed is 44.9%, the Astros don’t strike out at all, and they’re projected to start six guys with flyball rates over 27% and six guys with hard-hit rates over 40%. He only has an 18.6% strikeout rate, so we should have plenty of quality contact from him.
In Coors Field, sometimes a lot of contact in the air is all that we need to break the slate.
Kyle Tucker is a starting point for our stacks, as he’s a huge regression candidate in our favor. Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado provide some cheap pop, but I’m going with Yainer Diaz, whether or not I have to play a catcher. Diaz has led the team with a 13.5% barrel rate, a 35.1% flyball rate, 35.1% line dive rate, and is among the leaders with a 49.3% hard-hit rate.
As for the rest of the stack, it’s flawed, but it’s Coors. We can play everyone, as everyone has enough power to send a dong or speed to leg out extra bases in this large ballpark, as the pen has allowed a near 25% line drive rate.
As for ownership, this is where things get tricky. Our current pOWN% only has Tucker’s 8.2% as the only player over 7.0%, so we’re looking at low ownership. This could become such a talking point that the Astros get bumped as the day goes on. Though, the Astros could become the highest-owned stack, the number itself will come in lower than our average top-owned stack on a full slate, as ownership will be very spread out.
All of this is to say that the guy (me) who always tells you why fading Coors is a good idea is saying (for today) that we can play Coors pretty aggressively in all formats.
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