MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 25
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Huge slate, so there are some early teams to cross off for our purposes in this space that you can totally play!
1.) The White Sox are hovering around the same ownership as where the Cubs and Braves will end up. Nothing wrong with them. But we should like the Cubs and Braves more.
2.) The Giants are in a great spot, but pinch-hit risks and the ballpark leave a sour taste in the mouth.
3.) The Rockies. Hell of a spot for the Rockies. We can sprinkle them around, but they’re just so bad.
Today. we’re discussing the Braves as the chalk — despite current pOWN% saying the Cubs will be the highest owned — because they’re the Braves and it always ends up that way. And the Mets are a special case of low-owned power versus a struggling pitcher to prevent power in a home run ballpark.
Chalk Stack – Braves at Red Sox Bullpen
THE BAT projects the Red Sox bullpen to be one of the best pens in MLB for the remainder of the season. But we’re well past the point of playing the matchup game with Atlanta.
They lead MLB with a .360 wOBA and a .226 ISO. This season, their projected starting lineup has seven ISOs over .200 and six double-digit barrel rates. A lineup that has had a 55.3% hard-hit rate and a 27.1% flyball rate.
This stack is an overwhelming barrage of power for any matchup. Factor in that Fenway Park is the second-best hitter’s park, according to EV Analytics, behind only Coors Field, and have yet another spot where the Braves can explode.
The Boston pen doesn’t miss many bats for a bullpen, but they generate a lot of groundballs. Their 44.5% groundball rate so far this season and 6.4% barrel rate could be what contains the Braves. Who shouldn’t contain the Braves is Nick Pivetta.
Pivetta is currently projected to be the long reliever after Brennan Bernardino opens the game. He’s been brilliant in recent outings against the A’s, not having been blown up since May 16. But we’re still talking about Nick Pivetta. A guy who has given up 1.42 HR/9 on a 12.6% barrel rate this season.
This should be a chalky but under-owned stack. Currently, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies are the only really highly-owned played from the Braves, so we can easily fade both and have a low ownership product.
The Braves are my primary target for the FanDuel Single Entry Series, if we get confirmation that Pivetta is gonna get some serious run in this one. But I’m likely fading either Acuna or Albies. In MME, we don’t have to fade both, separating Acuna and Albies is probably the play. There’ll be enough lineups to get exposure to both, as we should be playing the Braves very aggressively.
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