MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, July 4
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
As we celebrate one of the greatest acts of rebellion in human history, we should be reminded that the Founders didn’t care about what freedoms would come of their declaration, revolution, and Constitution. They only cared that those freedoms would exist and evolve to create a free society. One of those freedoms is simple leisure. From the act of consuming vulgar media to consuming sports and wagering sums of our money on the outcomes of sporting events.
In this space, we’ll examine how we’re going to allocate that money. It’s a short slate with some uncomfortable decisions to make. But we should be fearless of uncomfortable situations in DFS.
Chalk Stack – Dodgers vs. Luis Ortiz and Blue Jays at Lucas Giolito
Luis Ortiz is the worst pitcher on the slate and the Dodgers get him in the homer-friendly Dodger Stadium.
Ortiz is slate-worst in some pertinent categories: xERA (6.79), SIERA (5.52), K/9 (5.54), BB/9 (4.47). And is second-worst in barrel rate (11.8%) with a near-second-worst 1.43 HR/9. His power prevention is terrible to both sides of the plate.
The Dodgers projected lineup comes at him with a .205 ISO, 51.1% hard-hit rate, and an 11.1% barrel rate against righties. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are fantastic plays, but it’s J.D. Martinez and Max Muncy who’ve supplied the most power on contact with their 20.8% and 19.8% barrel rates against righties. He’s near the bottom of the order, but we shouldn’t forget about James Outman; he strikes out a ton, but his 10.7% barrel rate against righties should play extremely well against a pitcher who can’t miss bats. This is a clear spot for a high frequency of high-quality contact.
In Chicago, the Blue Jays face Lucas Giolito, who isn’t a bad pitcher, but can get blown up big time. Giolito’s 1.45 HR/9 is narrowly the second-worst on the slate to go with his 10.3% barrel rate allowed. The Jays are packed with power, but I’m weary of stacking them up as chalk against Giolito’s wide splits.
Giolito’s giving up a 15.2% barrel rate to lefties to only a 7.8% rate to righties. Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho are the only power lefties on whom we can bank to be in the lineup. If Cavan Biggio cracks the lineup, we have a mini-stack. But I’m likely not going hard of Kevin Kiermaier to get overweight for a third or fourth lefty. The White Sox bullpen also projects to be a top-8 unit for the rest of the season by THE BAT.
The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in baseball. Ortiz is really bad. The ballpark is really good for hitting. We should play the Dodgers aggressively in all formats.
We can always bet on the Jays talent against a vulnerable pitcher and the ballpark is fantastic for power, but I’m probably fading the Jays in single-entry in favor of the Dodgers and would go underweight in MME.
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