MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 20
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This isn’t a juicy slate, but there’s ripe fruit to sweeten the juice if we squeeze hard enough. Between the 22 pitchers and 22 teams to stack, I don’t love much, so we’re gonna zero in on the spots where the field will gravitate, how we can pivot off of the field, and what we’re looking to sprinkle around for added leverage.
Chalk Stacks – Reds vs. Noah Davis and Guardians vs. A’s Bullpen
In MME, play the Reds however you want. They’re facing a pitcher in Noah Davis who THE BAT projects for 1.73 HR/9 for the rest of the season in the Great American Ball Park. The Reds shouldn’t be mega-chalk because this is an 11-game slate and the stacks aren’t sexy to look at, so there is some edge to getting aggressive with this chalk.
In single-entry, this is tricky. We don’t have great pivots, but we do have pivots. And these pivots’ pOWN% are gonna swing through the day. That said, with Guaranteed Rate Field featuring two good pitchers, this game has the best environment for homers on the slate.
There’s also the uninspiring Guardians gobbling up ownership. This is because they face Luis Medina for long relief, who has surrendered ten homers in fewer than 40 innings, with the rest of the terrible Oakland bullpen.
This is a great spot, just looking at this surface. I’m only uninspired because THE BAT projects regression toward the mean for Medina, to the tune of 1.30 HR/9 for the rest of the season. And his 9.1% barrel rate (though high!) is low for someone giving up over 2.00 HR/9. In other words, Medina isn’t very good, but he’s also been pretty unlucky and the lack of inspiring power in the Guardians lineup makes them a great candidate for his regression to begin.
Oakland’s bullpen has been so terrible that getting aggressive with the Guardians is completely justifiable. That said, in MME, I’d be underweight or even with the field. In single-entry, I’m fading unless we get a better pOWN% discount as the day goes on because the Rockies and Diamondbacks feel like the way to go.
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