MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 27
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Full slate. Everyone’s playing, so there are around dozen (if not more) stacks in play for MME. I’m contractually restricted (not really) to zero in on a relative few in these cases. First, we’ll look at the obvious chalk in the Dodgers at Coors Field. Normally, we’d talk about how there’s no really chalkity chalky chalk on a full slate, but the great Dodgers in the most well-known high-scoring environment is where the field will largely flock in all formats. Then, we’ll talk about some pivots that don’t really compare to the Dodgers projections, but are viable alternatives to differentiate. And, last, we’ll look at the teams we can pair with the Dodgers to inject leverage into our lineups.
Bear in mind, the industry chatter will be: whether or not the Dodgers are good chalk (they are), whether or not we have to play the Dodgers (we don’t), whether or not there are good enough alternatives to playing the Dodgers (there are), with a sprinkle of chatter about which teams are analysts’ favorite pivots (and this is where things might get crazy). This can get annoying, but what we do on this slate starts and ends with what we do with the Dodgers. I hate to be reductionist, but I gotta’ keep it real.
Chalk Stack – Dodgers at Connor Seabold
The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in baseball. Their projected lineup has a .218 ISO and an 11.4% barre rate against righties. Play everyone.
Coors Field is the best run-scoring environment in baseball. Play everyone.
Connor Seabold has a slate-worst 1.92 HR/9 allowed since the start of 2022. Play everyone.
The Dodgers are currently projected with pOWN under 15%. Play the living crap out of everyone if this sticks.
I’m on Team Fade Coors almost every slate, but the dynamics at play here say that we play all of the Dodgers and invest a lot of lineups in them. There are great pivots, but ownership is so spread out that it won’t cost too many lineups to go overweight wherever we want.
In single-entry, I’m probably playing the Dodgers with Yu Darvish in Pittsburgh to differentiate from Shohei Ohtani and Kevin Gausman. In MME, again, we could go 25% Dodgers, be overweight, and still be able to get overweight on other investments.
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