MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, June 6
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a massive slate tonight, including a Coors Field game with a high run total! Let’s cut to the chase and take a look at some stacks to target.
Chalk Stack – Dodgers vs. Luke Weaver, Giants vs. Dinelson Lamet
As expected, Weaver has been consistently below average this season. Today, he’ll square off against the Dodgers are the Great American “Smallpark.”
Weaver owns an uninspiring 4.60 xFIP with a 38% hard-hit and 42% fly-ball rate in 2023. He’s getting hit from both sides of the plate – yielding a .287 ISO and a .403 wOBA to righties with a .244 ISO against left-handed hitters. Weaver has given up 15 barrels in eight starts this year.
This entire lineup is certainly in play against Weaver, who yields similar power numbers against both sides of the plate. My favorite hitter here? I’m drooling over Max Muncy and his .326 ISO against RHP in this spot. In fact, this LAD projected lineup has five hitters owning a .248 ISO or better against right-handed pitching this season. They just mash the baseball.
The Dodgers currently project to be the highest-owned stack with the best chance to be optimal via our tops stacks and value tool.
The Giants will travel to Coors Field and are currently projected with a team total higher than six runs.
Dinelson Lamet is on the bump for the Rockies on Tuesday night. He always possessed some swing-and-miss stuff, but always had issues with control. Dating back to the beginning of 2022, he’s walking a terrifying 14% of hitters, with a .253 ISO to lefties and almost 50% fly ball and hard-hit rates to both sides of the plate. Lamet hasn’t gotten through more than three innings or 71 pitches this season.
While Lamet still strikes out some guys, his control issues can really help any single hitter on this Giants lineup break the slate with one swing.
Of course, lefty LaMonte Wade at the top of the projected lineup fits in any Giants stack, but I also love the idea of Joc Pederson and Mike Yastrzemski, who own .262 and .204 ISOs, respectively, against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season.
Lefty Blake Sabol is also intriguing, with a .224 ISO across 124 plate appearances against RHP since the start of 2022. He has a very high ground-ball rate, but the Coors elevation could help nullify that flaw.
Lamet essentially throws two pitches (fastballs and sliders) that make up about 90% of his pitch mix. Our PlateIQ tool shows that the Giants are a very good slider-hitting team. However, if the Giants get to Lamet early, how soon will any of these lefties be pinch-hit for? That’s always a risk with San Francisco, but it could be well worth it this evening.
According to our top stacks and value tool, the Giants are projected to carry the second-most ownership, but have just the sixth-best chance to be optimal. However, if you have conviction behind them, go for it! At a minimum, I still like some power left-handed bats.
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