MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, May 23
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Today, our stuff is projecting some surprising chalk in the Astros. Surprising because there are a few we should rather have. But the chalk on this slate is good, nonetheless. We just definitely don’t have to play it, unlike yesterday when it was difficult to avoid. This being a larger slate gives us more options to pivot.
Chalk Stacks – Marlins and Astros
This is site-specific. The Astros are projecting as chalk on both sites with the Marlins projecting as such on DK, while being more tempered on FD.
I’m gonna keep it real with you. I don’t understand the Astros love.
Sure, it’s a lineup with great pieces and Colin Rea has given up a lot of homers over 31.2 IP, but his 6.6% barrel rate, 34.1% FB rate, and 37.4% hard-hit rate suggest that he’s been unlucky to me. But I don’t really matter here. 1.74 HR/9 is a lot and his rest-of-season BAT projection is 1.68, which is also a lot. On top of this, our Opto% has them in the 9-10% range, so I’d listen to the projections over my discomfort.
My discomfort is enough to fade the Astros in single-entry, but they’re all totally playable in all formats. What we think, intellectually, and what we feel, emotionally, can affect our exposure to a limited degree, but these thoughts and feelings shouldn’t trump projections like this in our actual behavior. Given the Opto% being in line with their pOWN%, it’s probably the best recommendation to full stack and go slightly overweight.
The Marlins are in a weird spot. It’s a massive upgrade for them to be in Coors and there are a lot of sneaky double-digit barrel rates in their lineup, whatever lineup they decide to trot out there. But Austin Gomber isn’t terrible. In 143.0 IP at Coors since 2021, he’s only given up 1.4 HR/9 and generally has some groundball tendencies. That said, he’s had a putrid start to this season — 6.98 xERA, more BB/9 than K/9, and 1.83 HR/9, so stacking up these barrel rates (since 2022) should yield nice returns, factoring in that the Rockies bullpen stinks:
Jorge Soler, 14.7%
Peyton Burdick, 11.1% (if he plays)
Bryan De La Cruz, 10.5%
Garrett Cooper, 9.9%
I’m more enthused to play Miami at current ownership rates under 12% than Houston around the same range. Just because ownership and salary costs are too low for Coors. I normally fade Coors, but without standalone chalky chalk-chalk, this is an opportunity to get a lot of great exposure in all formats.
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