MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, May 9
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This isn’t our normal ten-game slate. It feels like a full slate, there are so many stacks and dynamics at play. Usually, we can just avoid chalk with this wealth of options, but the chalk is good chalk, so the auto x-out can be foolish. Normally, we just look at the chalk, the pivots, and the most off-the-board play only, but there are interesting salary dynamics on this slate that we shouldn’t ignore, given the fact that going double-ace at pitcher is very much in play.
Chalk Stack – Dodgers vs. Eric Lauer
Of the pitchers on the slate with at least 105.0 IP since 2022, Eric Lauer has the highest HR/9 allowed (1.57). This isn’t gas-can levels of bad, but the Dodgers are so stacked that they can make him look at his worst. In the slightly hitter-friendly park formerly known as Miller, Lauer comes in with a 43.5% FB rate and a 41.1% hard-hit rate with only a 15.5% soft contact rate. This means a lot of hard-hit flyballs hit by one of the best offenses in baseball.
Lauer is a lefty, so we might get some ownership relief in Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, who both have no problems mashing lefties. Mookie Betts and his .281 ISO against lefties since 2022 is an elite play and Chris Taylor comes in with a .207 ISO versus southpaws with Will Smith rounding out an expensive stack with his .194 ISO. We can go down in the order easily to James Outman, who is showing he has no issue with lefties in his young career, along with Trayce Thompson and his team-leading 17.2% barrel rate. Thompson carries a pinch-hit risk, but that’s baked into the price.
The Dodgers can be played in all formats on this sizeable slate, but we should be careful pairing them with high-owned teams like the Padres or even the White Sox. Their Opto% is fairly modest, so there’s an argument for fading them. But the field is flocking toward L.A. for good reason.
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