MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 12
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a split slate on tap for Wednesday, with 8 games in the afternoon and 6 more tonight. Most of the prime hitting spots (Coors, windy Wrigley, etc.) are on the afternoon slate, though we do still have a few high implied run totals this evening. Ownership should be a little more concentrated on the pitching side, where we’ve got 3 aces in excellent matchups. It’s hard to quibble with the high-end pitchers, so we’ll have to find a way to get unique in tournaments with our bats tonight.
Chalk Stacks — Orioles vs. Ken Waldichuk
The A’s have some hope for Ken Waldichuk, but to say his 2023 is off to a suboptimal start would be the understatement of a lifetime. All he’s done through 2 starts is allow 14 runs – all earned – including 7 dongs across just 8.2 innings of work. 7 homers allowed in 2 games is a lot regardless, but it’s extraordinary when you consider he’s done it in a couple of ballparks we view as some of the most pitcher-friendly in the league (Oakland and Tampa Bay).
Waldo posted big strikeout numbers as a minor-leaguer, but he’s been right around league average in that regard since making his MLB debut last summer. Control has also been a question mark for him, and a significant flyball lean (44% in the majors) is going to lead to some home run issues. Waldichuk got barreled up 12.1% of the time by big leaguers last year, and he’s up to 14.3% through his first 35 batted ball events of ’23.
Tonight, he’ll take his talents to Baltimore for a date with the upstart Orioles. Oriole Park isn’t what it used to be for righty power thanks to the new dimensions, but that hasn’t mattered for Waldichuk thus far.
The O’s enter tonight’s matchup ranked third in the league in team ISO (.211), and they’ve been particularly prolific against southpaws. We’re dealing with a limited sample this early in the year, but Baltimore’s projected lineup tonight boasts gaudy numbers (.413 wOBA, .302 ISO) against lefties so far this season. Those figures are unsustainably high, but it’s not like they’re without talent. Ryan Mountcastle (.224 ISO) and Anthony Santander (.237) have been the lefty-mashin’ headliners since the start of 2022, while Austin Hays and Ramon Urias have decent enough long-term track records, as well.
We can also expect Adley Rutschman to improve upon his .296 wOBA swinging from the right side since his debut last year. Jorge Mateo isn’t a major source of power, but 6 stolen bases through 9 games will do just fine.
Waldichuk’s struggles and the Orioles’ hot start won’t be lost on anybody tonight, however. Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, and Rutschman are currently projected to be the 4 most popular hitters on the DraftKings slate. A whopping 6 Orioles hitters are projected to attract at least 20% ownership on DK. Baltimore also accounts for 3 of the 7 chalkiest bats over on FanDuel. They look great on paper, but anything can happen in baseball. Waldichuk is no ace, but he’s also not the incredibly flammable gas can he’s looked like so far this season.
Mixing in the lefties (Cedric Mullins / Gunnar Henderson) is one way to make your stack a little more unique. Setting a max of 3 O’s hitters is also viable if most of the field is opting for the full-stack approach.