MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 19
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 4-game evening slate on this Wednesday, but we’re here to talk about the 10-game afternoon docket. Pirates-Rockies at Coors is in the mix again this afternoon, but there’s no shortage of offensive goodness out there. Coors is always the primary decision point from an ownership perspective, but we do have another team projecting to be quite popular in an advantageous spot of their own.
Chalk Stacks – Pirates (vs. Austin Gomber) and Cardinals (vs. Madison Bumgarner)
Another day, another opportunity to stack the Pirates. Pittsburgh isn’t quite as bereft of talent as they were last year, but the lineup is still a bit watered-down without Oneil Cruz in it. They’ll face lefty Austin Gomber today. Gomber isn’t a full-on gas can, but he’s attackable. His K-rate dipped from 23% in 2021 to just 18% last year, and he’s down again to around 16% through his first couple of starts this term.
Gomber’s already yielded 4 homers, which isn’t a huge surprise after he allowed a combined 40 dongs over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh isn’t a lineup known for its right-handed thunder, but Rodolfo Castro (.323 ISO), Andrew McCutchen (.219), and Mark Mathias (.215) have enjoyed success vs. LHPs since the beginning of ’22. Carlos Santana, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Connor Joe all have extremely low strikeout rates against southpaws, so the Buccos should be putting the ball in play today. We know that’s a recipe for success in the best hitter’s park of them all.
The salaries make the Pirates difficult to ignore, especially on DraftKings. Bryan Reynolds ($6,200) and McCutchen ($5,200) are the only expensive hitters here, with everybody else in the projected lineup coming in at $4,200 or less. Reynolds is the only guy on FanDuel over $4,000, as well. People recognize the Pirates’ overall lack of power, though, and I seriously doubt they’ll be so popular in tournaments that they must be avoided on this slate.
If the Pirates aren’t the chalkiest stack on the slate, it’ll be the Cardinals. They’ll be taking their swings against formerly good pitcher Madison Bumgarner. He’s only 33, but it feels like he’s been washed for at least the last 5 years. MadBum has been a below-average strikeouts guy ever since arriving in Arizona, but he’s hit a new low so far in 2023. We’re only working with a 3-game sample, but an 11.4% strikeout rate is downright ghastly. It somehow looks even more horrifying next to his 15.7% walk rate. If Bumgarner doesn’t at least have competent control, he doesn’t have much of anything.
The Redbirds are conveniently built to mash left-handed pitching, too. Since the beginning of 2022, the projected lineup owns an ungodly .368 wOBA with a .223 ISO vs. LHPs. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras all have ISOs north of .300 against lefties, while Jordan Walker has acquitted himself well (.333) in that department in a tiny sample so far this year. Even Tommy Edman (.196 ISO) hits for more power from the right side of the plate, while Tyler O’Neill is rounding into form after a sluggish start.
This is just a perfect spot for what should be a great lineup. St. Louis has underwhelmed with the bats for much of April, but this is about as good of a bounce-back spot as you can ask for. Bumgarner’s barrel rate is all the way up to 14% thus far, which is cataclysmic for a guy that no longer appears capable of missing any bats.